globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1111/risa.13284
WOS记录号: WOS:000474284900008
论文题名:
Null Hypothesis Testing not equal Scientific Inference: A Critique of the Shaky Premise at the Heart of the Science and Values Debate, and a Defense of Value-Neutral Risk Assessment
作者: MacGillivray, Brian H.
通讯作者: MacGillivray, Brian H.
刊名: RISK ANALYSIS
ISSN: 0272-4332
EISSN: 1539-6924
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:7, 页码:1520-1532
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Argument from inductive risk ; hypothesis testing ; risk assessment ; uncertainty analysis ; value-neutral
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DECISION-MAKING ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; EXPERT JUDGMENT ; INDUCTIVE RISK ; UNCERTAINTY ; BIAS ; UNDERDETERMINATION ; TRANSPARENCY ; REFLECTIONS
WOS学科分类: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
WOS研究方向: Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Mathematics ; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
英文摘要:

Many philosophers and statisticians argue that risk assessors are morally obligated to evaluate the probabilities and consequences of methodological error, and to base their decisions of whether to adopt a given parameter value, model, or hypothesis on those considerations. This argument is couched within the rubric of null hypothesis testing, which I suggest is a poor descriptive and normative model for risk assessment. Risk regulation is not primarily concerned with evaluating the probability of data conditional upon the null hypothesis, but rather with measuring risks, estimating the consequences of available courses of action and inaction, formally characterizing uncertainty, and deciding what to do based upon explicit values and decision criteria. In turn, I defend an ideal of value-neutrality, whereby the core inferential tasks of risk assessment-such as weighing evidence, estimating parameters, and model selection-should be guided by the aim of correspondence to reality. This is not to say that value judgments be damned, but rather that they should be accounted for within a structured approach to decision analysis, rather than embedded within risk assessment in an informal manner.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142893
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: Cardiff Univ, Sustainable Pl Res Inst, Cardiff CF10 3AT, S Glam, Wales

Recommended Citation:
MacGillivray, Brian H.. Null Hypothesis Testing not equal Scientific Inference: A Critique of the Shaky Premise at the Heart of the Science and Values Debate, and a Defense of Value-Neutral Risk Assessment[J]. RISK ANALYSIS,2019-01-01,39(7):1520-1532
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