globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab17fb
WOS记录号: WOS:000476946400003
论文题名:
Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C
作者: Qian, Budong1; Zhang, Xuebin2; Smith, Ward1; Grant, Brian1; Jing, Qi1; Cannon, Alex J.2; Neilsen, Denise1; McConkey, Brian1; Li, Guilong2; Bonsal, Barrie2; Wan, Hui2; Xue, Li3; Zhao, Jun3
通讯作者: Qian, Budong
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:7
语种: 英语
英文关键词: agriculture ; Canada ; climate change ; climate targets ; crop yields ; crop models
WOS关键词: CROP PRODUCTION ; MODEL ; AGRICULTURE ; ADAPTATION ; EMISSIONS ; PRODUCTIVITY ; MANAGEMENT ; NITROGEN ; DAYCENT ; SYSTEMS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Science-based assessments of climate change impacts on cropping systems under different levels of global warming are essential for informing stakeholders which global climate targets and potential adaptation strategies may be effective. A comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts on Canada's crop production under different levels of global warming is currently lacking. The DayCent, DNDC and DSSAT models were employed to estimate changes in crop yield and production for three prominent crops including spring wheat, canola and maize in current agricultural regions of Canada. Four warming scenarios with global mean temperature changes of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial level were investigated. Climate scenarios from 20 Global Climate Models, included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and downscaled with a multivariate quantile mapping bias correction method, were used to drive the crop simulation models. Simulated yield changes demonstrate a potentially positive impact on spring wheat and canola yields at all four temperature levels, particularly when shifting planting date is considered in the simulations. There was less consensus for the currently utilized short-season maize cultivars, as yields were only projected to increase byDNDCcompared to a slight decrease by DayCent and a slight increase up to 2.5 degrees C followed by a decrease at 3.0 degrees C by DSSAT. These findings indicate that climate at the global warming levels up to 3.0 degrees C above the pre-industrial level could be beneficial for crop production of small grains in Canada. However, these benefits declined after warming reached 2.5 degrees C.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142894
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada
2.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Sci & Technol Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada
3.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Strateg Policy Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Qian, Budong,Zhang, Xuebin,Smith, Ward,et al. Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 degrees C, 2.0 degrees C, 2.5 degrees C and 3.0 degrees C[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(7)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Qian, Budong]'s Articles
[Zhang, Xuebin]'s Articles
[Smith, Ward]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Qian, Budong]'s Articles
[Zhang, Xuebin]'s Articles
[Smith, Ward]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Qian, Budong]‘s Articles
[Zhang, Xuebin]‘s Articles
[Smith, Ward]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.