globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.03.020
WOS记录号: WOS:000467661800044
论文题名:
Risk of spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in tomato crops under various climate change scenarios
作者: Ramos, Rodrigo Soares1,2; Kumar, Lalit2; Shabani, Farzin2,3; Picanco, Marcelo Coutinho1
通讯作者: Ramos, Rodrigo Soares
刊名: AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
ISSN: 0308-521X
EISSN: 1873-2267
出版年: 2019
卷: 173, 页码:524-535
语种: 英语
英文关键词: MaxEnt ; Climate change ; Begomovirus ; Tomato ; Bemisia tabaci ; Modeling
WOS关键词: BEMISIA-TABACI ; SELECTING THRESHOLDS ; SEED TRANSMISSION ; GEMINIVIRUS ; PREDICTION ; DISEASES ; MODELS ; PLANTS ; STATES
WOS学科分类: Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向: Agriculture
英文摘要:

Species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable for the information they provide to reduce the potential negative effects of climatic factors on agricultural production systems. Such information may be used to prevent the entry and spread of invasive species in new areas, as well as to monitor regions with current occurrence. This is the first study of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) global distribution, focusing on the risk of this disease in areas projected to be suitable for open field tomato (Solarium lycopersicum) and for whitefly (Bemisia tabaci - biotypes B and Q). TYLCV (Begomovirus) is an important virus transmitted by B. tabaci and poses a risk to S. lycopersictun cultivation worldwide. Despite the importance of TYLCV, the potential impact of climate change on the global distribution of TYLCV in agricultural crops remains unstudied. The aim of this study was to identify the invasion risk levels for TYLCV in areas optimally conducive for open field tomato cultivation and suitable for B. tabaci (biotypes B and Q) under projected climate changes for the years 2050 and 2070 using MaxEnt and the Global Climate Model (HadGEM2_ES, MIR005 and CCSM4) under four scenarios (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our results show that large regions are projected to be suitable for TYLCV in areas of suitability for B. tabaci and optimal for open field tomato cultivation. In the predictions, most areas with optimal conditions for S. lycopersicum and suitable for B. tabaci will be under medium suitability for TYLCV under climate change scenarios. This research may be useful to design strategies to prevent the introduction and establishment of TYLCV where the occurrence has not yet been reported.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142957
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Fed Vicosa, Dept Entomol, BR-36570900 Vicosa, MG, Brazil
2.Univ New England, Sch Environm & Rural Sci, Ecosyst Management, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia
3.Flinders Univ S Australia, Coll Sci & Engn, Global Ecol, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, SA, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Ramos, Rodrigo Soares,Kumar, Lalit,Shabani, Farzin,et al. Risk of spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in tomato crops under various climate change scenarios[J]. AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,2019-01-01,173:524-535
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