globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab1cd9
WOS记录号: WOS:000474788900001
论文题名:
Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission
作者: Orru, Hans1,2; Astrom, Christofer1; Andersson, Camilla3; Tamm, Tanel4; Ebi, Kristie L.5; Forsberg, Bertil1
通讯作者: Orru, Hans
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:7
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air quality ; temperature ; health ; climate change ; modelling
WOS关键词: GROUND-LEVEL OZONE ; AIR-POLLUTION ; ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT ; HEALTH IMPACTS ; TEMPERATURE ; MORBIDITY ; CHEMISTRY ; AEROSOLS ; EXTREMES ; QUALITY
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Climate change is expected to increase to extreme temperatures and lead to more intense formation of near-surface ozone. Higher temperatures can cause heat stress and ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant; both increase cardiorespiratory mortality. Using greenhouse gas and ozone precursor emission scenarios, global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models, epidemiological data, and population projections, we projected ozone- and heat-related health risks under a changing climate. European near-surface temperature was modelled with the regional climate model (RCA4), forced by the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and the global climate model EC-EARTH, and near-surface ozone was modelled with the Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) model. Two periods were compared: recent climate in 1991-2000 and future climate in 2046-2055, projecting around a 2 degrees increase in global temperatures by that time. Projections of premature mortality considered future climate, future population, and future emissions separately and jointly to understand the relative importance of their contributions. Ozone currently causes 55 000 premature deaths annually in Europe due to long-term exposure, including a proportion of the estimated 26 000 deaths per year due to short-term exposures. When only taking into account the impact of a changing climate, up to an 11% increase in ozone-associated mortality is expected in some countries in Central and Southern Europe in 2050. However, projected decreases in ozone precursor emissions are expected to result in a decrease in ozone-related mortality (-30% as EUaverage). Due to aging and increasingly susceptible populations, the decrease in 2050 would be smaller, up to -24%. During summer months, ozone risks could combine with increasing temperatures, especially during the hottest periods and in densely populated urban areas. While the heat burden is currently of the same order of magnitude as ozone, due to increasing temperatures and decreasing ozone precursor emissions, heat-related mortality could be twice as large as ozone-related mortality in 2050.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/142966
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Umea Univ, Inst Publ Hlth & Clin Med, S-90187 Umea, Sweden
2.Univ Tartu, Inst Family Med & Publ Hlth, Ravila 19, EE-50409 Tartu, Estonia
3.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Folkborgsvagen 17, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden
4.Univ Tartu, Inst Ecol & Earth Sci, Vanemuise 46, EE-51003 Tartu, Estonia
5.Univ Washington, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Seattle, WA 98105 USA

Recommended Citation:
Orru, Hans,Astrom, Christofer,Andersson, Camilla,et al. Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(7)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Orru, Hans]'s Articles
[Astrom, Christofer]'s Articles
[Andersson, Camilla]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Orru, Hans]'s Articles
[Astrom, Christofer]'s Articles
[Andersson, Camilla]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Orru, Hans]‘s Articles
[Astrom, Christofer]‘s Articles
[Andersson, Camilla]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.