globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095001
论文题名:
Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions
作者: Anna LoPresti; Allison Charland; Dawn Woodard; James Randerson; Noah S Diffenbaugh; Steven J Davis
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-08-28
卷: 10, 期:9
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO2 emissions of 4620 Gt CO2 (reached in 2100 in RCP4.5 and 2057 in RCP8.5) produce globally averaged warming rates that are nearly twice as fast in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (0.34 ± 0.08 °C per decade versus 0.19 ± 0.05 °C per decade, respectively). Similarly, the globally averaged velocity of climate change calculated according to the 'nearest equivalent climate' is greater by a factor of ~2 in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 (2.51 ± 0.67 km yr−1 versus 1.32 ± 0.39 km yr−1, respectively), despite equivalent cumulative emissions. These differences in the projected velocity of climate change represent uncertainty for ecosystems that may be unable to adapt to the faster changes. Particularly at risk are boreal forests, of which 48% are projected to experience rates of change beyond their expected adaptive capacity (i.e. >0.3 °C per decade) in RCP4.5, compared with 95% in RCP8.5. Thus, the same budget of cumulative carbon emissions may result in critically different impacts on natural and human systems, depending on the amount of time over which that budget is expended.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095001
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14306
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine, USA;Department of Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, USA;Department of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine, USA;Department of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine, USA;Department of Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, USA;Department of Earth System Science, University of California at Irvine, USA

Recommended Citation:
Anna LoPresti,Allison Charland,Dawn Woodard,et al. Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(9)
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