globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2018.1540920
WOS记录号: WOS:000472046000005
论文题名:
Future Extreme Event Risk in the Rural Northeastern United States
作者: Winter, Jonathan M.1; Bowen, Fiona L.2; Partridge, Trevor F.3; Chipman, Jonathan W.4
通讯作者: Winter, Jonathan M.
刊名: ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOGRAPHERS
ISSN: 2469-4452
EISSN: 2469-4460
出版年: 2019
卷: 109, 期:4, 页码:1110-1130
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; climate impacts ; extreme events ; northeastern United States ; vulnerability
WOS关键词: SEA-LEVEL RISE ; HYDROLOGICALLY BASED DATASET ; LAND-SURFACE FLUXES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RECENT TRENDS ; HEAT WAVES ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS
WOS学科分类: Geography
WOS研究方向: Geography
英文摘要:

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Rural areas of the northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural-resource-dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we analyzed future (2046-2075) annual maximum daily maximum temperature, annual minimum daily minimum temperature, annual maximum daily precipitation, and annual minimum two-week summer precipitation for two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using four global climate models and gridded temperature and precipitation observations. We then combined those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in extreme person-events compared to a historical period (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that are rural (less than 250,000 people) and vulnerable (in the bottom income quartile). For all counties and lowest income quartile counties in the rural Northeast, extreme heat person-events increase nineteen-fold and twenty-nine fold, respectively, under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, far exceeding the decrease in extreme cold person-events. The number of extreme precipitation and drought person-events does not significantly change across the rural Northeast. For the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, counties in the bottom two income quartiles experience the 1976-2005 once-per-year daily heat event twenty-three times per year by 2046-2075; the lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario reduces the incidence to eleven times per year.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143110
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Dartmouth Coll, Dept Geog, Hanover, NH 03755 USA
2.Dartmouth Coll, Thayer Sch Engn, Hanover, NH 03755 USA
3.Dartmouth Coll, Dept Earth Sci, Hanover, NH 03755 USA
4.Dartmouth Coll, Citrin GIS Appl Spatial Anal Lab, Hanover, NH 03755 USA

Recommended Citation:
Winter, Jonathan M.,Bowen, Fiona L.,Partridge, Trevor F.,et al. Future Extreme Event Risk in the Rural Northeastern United States[J]. ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF GEOGRAPHERS,2019-01-01,109(4):1110-1130
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