全球变化知识资源中心

Europe's and the World's northernmost agriculture is very vulnerable to harsh overwintering conditions. It is important from both an economic and societal standpoint to have accurate methods of predicting the severity and impact of the current snow season. Technology has advanced to enable such measurements to be regularly recorded but despite this, a detailed assessment, involving remote sensing , of the impacts of various types of snow season on agricultural yields in northernmost Europe has not previously been undertaken. Here we characterize variation in snow types and concomitant soil frost and ground-ice accumulation at a Norwegian sub-Arctic, maritime-buffered site (Tromsø, Troms County, 69 °N) during the period 1989/90 to 2013/14 and analyse how winter conditions affect agricultural productivity (both measured in the field and using remote sensing). These data were then used to build important predictive modelling approaches. In total, five contrasting types of snow season were identified, from snow-rich with no soil frost and no ground-ice to low snow and considerable soil frost and ground-ice. Conditions of low snow and low soil frost and ground-ice that result from numerous warming events were rare within the time period studied but are predicted to become the dominant snow season type. Agricultural productivity was lowest and claim settlements paid to farmers were highest after winters with high accumulation of plant-damaging, hermetic ground-ice. Deep soil frost per se did not affect primary productivity. Overall, our results together with information from other sources, suggest that icy, low snow conditions are the most challenging of all seasonal types for both the environment and livelihoods in sub-Arctic Norway. Winters with extremely deep snow also cause considerable problems. As winters are expected to warm more than summers, it is likely that the winter climate will become an even stronger regulator of northern primary productivity. To better understand the physical and biological effects of the changing winter climate, there is a requirement for continued and increasing monitoring of winter processes, especially related to frost and ice in the rhizosphere, as this is currently not well covered in national monitoring programs. Continued monitoring will enable further refinement of predictions and will support the better community planning for greatest agricultural benefit.