Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29oC and declining to zero below 9-23oC and above 32-38oC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26oC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29oC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.
1.Stanford Univ, Dept Biol, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305 USA 2.Penn State Univ, Dept Entomol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA 3.Penn State Univ, Ctr Infect Dis Dynam, University Pk, PA 16802 USA 4.Univ Florida, Dept Geog, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA 5.Univ Florida, Emerging Pathogens Inst, Gainesville, FL USA 6.Virginia Polytech & State Univ, Dept Stat, 250 Drillfield Dr, Blacksburg, VA USA 7.Pontificia Univ Catolica Ecuador, Ctr Res Hlth Latin Amer CISeAL, Quito, Ecuador 8.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Biol Sci, Environm Change Initiat, Eck Inst Global Hlth, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA 9.Univ KwaZulu Natal, Sch Life Sci, Durban, South Africa 10.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA 11.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Biomath, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA 12.Santa Fe Inst, 1399 Hyde Pk Rd, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA 13.SUNY Upstate Med Univ, Inst Global Hlth & Translat Sci, Syracuse, NY 13210 USA