globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004
论文题名:
Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones
作者: Il-Ju Moon; Sung-Hun Kim; Phil Klotzbach; Johnny C L Chan
刊名: Environmental Research Letters
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-10-06
卷: 10, 期:10
语种: 英语
英文摘要:

An observed poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) achieved their lifetime-maximum intensities (LMIs) was previously explained by changes in the mean meridional environments favorable to storm development linked to tropical expansion and anthropogenic warming. We show that the poleward migration is greatly influenced by basin-to-basin changes in TC frequency associated with multi-decadal variability, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The contribution of the frequency changes to the poleward migration is comparable to that of the mean meridional environmental changes. A statistically significant global poleward trend can be identified simply from the frequency changes in each basin. An opposite trend exists in the frequency variations over the past 30 years between the North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific where climatological mean latitudes of LMI are high (26.1°N) and low (16.5°N), respectively, which is the key factor in driving the frequency contribution. The strong roles of the interbasin frequency changes in the poleward migration also suggest that if the phase of multidecadal variability in the NH is reversed, as found in earlier TC records, the poleward trend could be changed to an opposite, equatorward, trend in the future.

URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14328
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University, Ara 1 Dong. Jejusi 690-756, Korea;Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University, Ara 1 Dong. Jejusi 690-756, Korea;Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA;Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Recommended Citation:
Il-Ju Moon,Sung-Hun Kim,Phil Klotzbach,et al. Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2015-01-01,10(10)
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