globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1316-y
WOS记录号: WOS:000474843400038
论文题名:
National food production stabilized by crop diversity
作者: Renard, Delphine1,2; Tilman, David1,3
通讯作者: Renard, Delphine
刊名: NATURE
ISSN: 0028-0836
EISSN: 1476-4687
出版年: 2019
卷: 571, 期:7764, 页码:257-+
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; BIODIVERSITY ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Increasing global food demand, low grain reserves and climate change threaten the stability of food systems on national to global scales(1-5). Policies to increase yields, irrigation and tolerance of crops to drought have been proposed as stability-enhancing solutions(1,6,7). Here we evaluate a complementary possibility-that greater diversity of crops at the national level may increase the year-to-year stability of the total national harvest of all crops combined. We test this crop diversity-stability hypothesis using 5 decades of data on annual yields of 176 crop species in 91 nations. We find that greater effective diversity of crops at the national level is associated with increased temporal stability of total national harvest. Crop diversity has stabilizing effects that are similar in magnitude to the observed destabilizing effects of variability in precipitation. This greater stability reflects markedly lower frequencies of years with sharp harvest losses. Diversity effects remained robust after statistically controlling for irrigation, fertilization, precipitation, temperature and other variables, and are consistent with the variance-scaling characteristics of individual crops required by theory(8,9) for diversity to lead to stability. Ensuring stable food supplies is a challenge that will probably require multiple solutions. Our results suggest that increasing national effective crop diversity may be an additional way to address this challenge.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143308
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
2.Univ Paul Valery Montpellier 3, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, CEFE,EPHE,IRD, Montpellier, France
3.Univ Minnesota, Dept Ecol Evolut & Behav, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

Recommended Citation:
Renard, Delphine,Tilman, David. National food production stabilized by crop diversity[J]. NATURE,2019-01-01,571(7764):257-+
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