globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1632461
WOS记录号: WOS:000478539600001
论文题名:
Bootstrap Pettitt test for detecting change points in hydroclimatological data: case study of Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant, Brazil
作者: Conte, Luiza Chiarelli1; Bayer, Debora Missio2; Bayer, Fabio Mariano3,4
通讯作者: Bayer, Debora Missio
刊名: HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
ISSN: 0262-6667
EISSN: 2150-3435
出版年: 2019
卷: 64, 期:11, 页码:1312-1326
语种: 英语
英文关键词: bootstrap ; change point detection ; climate change ; hydrological analyses ; hydrological change ; Monte Carlo simulation
WOS关键词: LA-PLATA BASIN ; RIVER-BASIN ; ABRUPT CHANGES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PARANA RIVER ; WATER-LEVEL ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACTS ; TEMPERATURE ; HOMOGENEITY
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

The Pettitt test is widely used in climate change and hydrological analyses. However, studies show difficulties of this test in detecting change points, especially in small samples. This study presents a bootstrap application of the Pettitt test, and compares it numerically with the classical Pettitt test by an extensive Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed test outperforms the classical test in all simulated scenarios. An application of the tests is conducted on the historical series of naturalized flows of the Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant in Brazil, for which several studies have shown a change point in the 1970s. When the series is split into shorter sub-series, to simulate actual situations of small samples, the proposed test is more powerful than the classical Pettitt test in detecting the change point. The proposed test can be an important tool for detecting abrupt changes in water availability, in support of hydroclimatological resources decision making.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143534
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Fed Santa Maria, Programa Posgrad Engn Civil, Santa Maria, RS, Brazil
2.Univ Fed Santa Maria, Dept Engn Sanit & Ambiental, Santa Maria, RS, Brazil
3.Univ Fed Santa Maria, Dept Estat, Santa Maria, RS, Brazil
4.Univ Fed Santa Maria, LACESM, Santa Maria, RS, Brazil

Recommended Citation:
Conte, Luiza Chiarelli,Bayer, Debora Missio,Bayer, Fabio Mariano. Bootstrap Pettitt test for detecting change points in hydroclimatological data: case study of Itaipu Hydroelectric Plant, Brazil[J]. HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES,2019-01-01,64(11):1312-1326
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