globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6219
WOS记录号: WOS:000477471900001
论文题名:
The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010-2018): A climate dynamics perspective
作者: Garreaud, Rene D.1,2; Boisier, Juan P.2; Rondanelli, Roberto1,2; Montecinos, Aldo3,4; Sepulveda, Hector H.3; Veloso-Aguila, Daniel3
通讯作者: Garreaud, Rene D.
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Chile ; climate change ; drought ; ENSO ; PDO ; SAM ; South America
WOS关键词: SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE ; RAINFALL VARIABILITY ; CALIFORNIA DROUGHT ; FERTILE CRESCENT ; GREENHOUSE-GAS ; CENTRAL ANDES ; PACIFIC ; PRECIPITATION ; CIRCULATION
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Central Chile, home to more than 10 million inhabitants, has experienced an uninterrupted sequence of dry years since 2010 with mean rainfall deficits of 20-40%. The so-called Mega Drought (MD) is the longest event on record and with few analogues in the last millennia. It encompasses a broad area, with detrimental effects on water availability, vegetation and forest fires that have scaled into social and economical impacts. Observations and reanalysis data reveal that the exceptional length of the MD results from the prevalence of a circulation dipole-hindering the passage of extratropical storms over central Chile-characterized by deep tropospheric anticyclonic anomalies over the subtropical Pacific and cyclonic anomalies over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major modulator of such dipole, but the MD has occurred mostly under ENSO-neutral conditions, except for the winters of 2010 (La Nina) and 2015 (strong El Nino). Climate model simulations driven both with historical forcing (natural and anthropogenic) and observed global SST replicate the south Pacific dipole and capture part of the rainfall anomalies. Idealized numerical experiments suggest that most of the atmospheric anomalies emanate from the subtropical southwest Pacific, a region that has experienced a marked surface warming over the last decade. Such warming may excite atmospheric Rossby waves whose propagation intensifies the circulation pattern leading to dry conditions in central Chile. On the other hand, anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases concentration increase and stratospheric ozone depletion) and the associated positive trend of the Southern Annular Mode also contribute to the strength of the south Pacific dipole and hence to the intensity and longevity of the MD. Given the concomitance of the seemingly natural (ocean sourced) and anthropogenic forcing, we anticipate only a partial recovery of central Chile precipitation in the decades to come.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143630
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Chile, Geophys Dept, Santiago, Chile
2.Univ Chile, Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Santiago, Chile
3.Univ Concepcion, Dept Geophys, Concepcion, Chile
4.Univ Concepcion, Ctr Recursos Hidr Agr & Mineria, Concepcion, Chile

Recommended Citation:
Garreaud, Rene D.,Boisier, Juan P.,Rondanelli, Roberto,et al. The Central Chile Mega Drought (2010-2018): A climate dynamics perspective[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01
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