globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0219242
WOS记录号: WOS:000482335700020
论文题名:
Spatiotemporal downscaling of global population and income scenarios for the United States
作者: Wear, David N.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.
通讯作者: Wear, David N.
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:7
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; PANEL-DATA ; INITIAL CONDITIONS ; ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; SPECIFICATION ; CONVERGENCE ; PROJECTIONS ; FRAMEWORK ; TESTS ; SOLOW
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

Downscaled climate projections need to be linked to downscaled projections of population and economic growth to fully develop implications for land, natural resources, and ecosystems for future scenarios. We develop an empirical spatiotemporal approach for jointly projecting population and income at the county scale in the United States that is consistent with neoclassical economic growth theory and overlapping labor markets and that accounts for labor migration and spatial spillovers. Downscaled projections generated for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used to support global scenario analysis generally show growth focused around relatively few centers especially in the southeast and western regions, with some areas in the Midwest and northeast experiencing population declines. Results are consistent with economic growth theory and with historical trends in population change and convergence of per capita personal income across US counties.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143736
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作者单位: US Forest Serv, Forestry Sci Lab, USDA, Southern Res Stn, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA

Recommended Citation:
Wear, David N.,Prestemon, Jeffrey P.. Spatiotemporal downscaling of global population and income scenarios for the United States[J]. PLOS ONE,2019-01-01,14(7)
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