globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13519
WOS记录号: WOS:000479331100001
论文题名:
Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped-storage operation and climate change
作者: Kobler, Ulrike Gabriele1,2; Schmid, Martin1
通讯作者: Kobler, Ulrike Gabriele
刊名: HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
ISSN: 0885-6087
EISSN: 1099-1085
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:20, 页码:2676-2690
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; hydrodynamic and lake ice model ; ice coverage ; pumped-storage hydropower ; weather generator
WOS关键词: NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; LAKE ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; PHENOLOGY ; SIMULATIONS ; RESPONSES ; TRENDS ; DRIVEN
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Ensemble modelling was used to assess the robustness of projected impacts of pumped-storage (PS) operation and climate change on reservoir ice cover. To this end, three one-dimensional and a two-dimensional laterally averaged hydrodynamic model were set up. For the latter, the strength of the impacts with increasing distance from the dam was also investigated. Climate change effects were simulated by forcing the models with 150 years of synthetic meteorological time series created with a weather generator based on available air temperature scenarios for Switzerland. Future climate by the end of the 21(st) century was projected to shorten the ice-covered period by similar to 2 months and decrease ice thicknesses by similar to 13 cm. Under current climate conditions, the ice cover would already be affected by extended PS operation. For example, the average probability of ice coverage on a specific day was projected to decrease by similar to 13% for current climate and could further be reduced from similar to 45% to similar to 10% for future climate. Overall, the results of all models were consistent. Although the number of winters without ice cover was projected to increase for all one-dimensional models, studying individual segments of the two-dimensional model showed that the impact was pronounced for segments close to the PS intake/outlet. In summary, the reservoir's ice cover is expected to partially vanish with higher probability of open water conditions closer to the PS intake/outlet.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143751
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Eawag, Swiss Fed Inst Aquat Sci & Technol, Dept Surface Waters Res & Management, CH-6047 Kastanienbaum, Switzerland
2.Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, Margaretha Kamprad Chair, Phys Aquat Syst Lab, Lausanne, Switzerland

Recommended Citation:
Kobler, Ulrike Gabriele,Schmid, Martin. Ensemble modelling of ice cover for a reservoir affected by pumped-storage operation and climate change[J]. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,2019-01-01,33(20):2676-2690
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