globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1902046116
WOS记录号: WOS:000477812400043
论文题名:
Historical reconstruction unveils the risk of mass mortality and ecosystem collapse during pancontinental megadrought
作者: Godfree, Robert C.; Knerr, Nunzio; Godfree, Denise; Busby, John; Robertson, Bruce; Encinas-Viso, Francisco
通讯作者: Godfree, Robert C.
刊名: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN: 0027-8424
出版年: 2019
卷: 116, 期:31, 页码:15580-15589
语种: 英语
英文关键词: megadrought ; ecosystem collapse ; mass mortality ; trophic impact ; Federation Drought
WOS关键词: LARGE MAMMAL POPULATIONS ; EXTREME DROUGHT ; SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA ; CLIMATE ; RAINFALL ; IMPACTS ; FOREST ; RIVER ; FLUCTUATIONS ; PATTERNS
WOS学科分类: Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向: Science & Technology - Other Topics
英文摘要:

An important new hypothesis in landscape ecology is that extreme, decade-scale megadroughts can be potent drivers of rapid, macroscale ecosystem degradation and collapse. If true, an increase in such events under climate change could have devastating consequences for global biodiversity. However, because few megadroughts have occurred in the modern ecological era, the taxonomic breadth, trophic depth, and geographic pattern of these impacts remain unknown. Here we use ecohistorical techniques to quantify the impact of a record, pancontinental megadrought period (1891 to 1903 CE) on the Australian biota. We show that during this event mortality and severe stress was recorded in >45 bird, mammal, fish, reptile, and plant families in arid, semi-arid, dry temperate, and Mediterranean ecosystems over at least 2.8 million km(2) (36%) of the Australian continent. Trophic analysis reveals a bottom-up pattern of mortality concentrated in primary producer, herbivore, and omnivore guilds. Spatial and temporal reconstruction of premortality rainfall shows that mass mortality and synchronous ecosystem-wide collapse emerged in multiple geographic hotspots after 2 to 4 y of severe (>40%) and intensifying rainfall deficits. However, the presence of hyperabundant herbivores significantly increased the sensitivity of ecosystems to overgrazing-induced meltdown and permanent ecosystem change. The unprecedented taxonomic breadth and spatial scale of these impacts demonstrate that continental-scale megadroughts pose a major future threat to global biodiversity, especially in ecosystems affected by intensive agricultural use, trophic simplification, and invasive species.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/143851
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: CSIRO, Natl Res Collect Australia, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Godfree, Robert C.,Knerr, Nunzio,Godfree, Denise,et al. Historical reconstruction unveils the risk of mass mortality and ecosystem collapse during pancontinental megadrought[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,2019-01-01,116(31):15580-15589
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