全球变化知识资源中心

Climate change is viewed as a cause in accelerating the rate of invasion by alien species in addition to the globalization of anthropogenic activities. Ecological niche modeling has become an instrument in predicting invasion from natural or invaded ranges to uninvaded ranges based on the presence records of organisms and environmental parameters. This study explored the changes in the distributions of globally noxious alien species (Aegratina adenophora, Ageratum conyzoides, Chromolaena odorata, Lantana camara, Mikania micrantha, and Parthenium hysterophorus) in Bhutan, to provide evidence that even a mountain environment is under the threat of invasion given the change in climatic conditions. With fairly high accuracy, the model results suggest that there will be a potential increase in the areas of invasion among most of the species, except Parthenium hysterophorus, which will experience a northerly shift and decline in distribution. The results also indicate changes in patterns of invasion, some becoming more concentrated toward a given direction, while others become more dispersed over time. This study provides a framework that can be used in the strategic control of the species, future detection surveys, and further research.