globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/joc.6065
WOS记录号: WOS:000479031900018
论文题名:
Non-stationary modelling of extreme precipitation by climate indices during rainy season in Hanjiang River Basin, China
作者: Hao, Wenlong1; Shao, Quanxi2; Hao, Zhenchun1; Ju, Qin1; Baima, Wangdui3; Zhang, Dawei4
通讯作者: Hao, Zhenchun
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN: 0899-8418
EISSN: 1097-0088
出版年: 2019
卷: 39, 期:10, 页码:4154-4169
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate indices ; extreme precipitation ; GAMLSS ; Hanjiang River Basin ; non-stationarity
WOS关键词: FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; YANGTZE-RIVER ; HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; REGIONAL FREQUENCY ; SUMMER MONSOON ; ENSO ; RAINFALL ; TRENDS ; EVENTS ; SCALE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The extreme precipitation regimes have been changing as the climate system has warmed. Investigating the non-stationarity and better estimating the changes of the extreme precipitation are valuable for informing policy decisions. In this study, two precipitation indices are employed to describe the extreme events, including maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day) and the number of very heavy precipitation days (R20). The generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) is employed to characterize non-stationarities in extreme precipitation events and related climate indices in 13 stations in the Hanjiang River basin (HJRB). Three models including stationary model without change (M0), non-stationary models over time (M1) and non-stationarity models with large-scale climate indices (M2) as predictors, respectively, are considered to analyse occurrence rates of extreme precipitation. The optimal model and the significant predictors were selected by the Akaike information criterion (AIC). To investigate the main predictors at regional scale, the homogeneous subregions for precipitation extremes are identified by clustering analysis. Results indicate that: (a) the non-stationarities of RX5day series and R20 series at all stations are identified in the HJRB; (b) extreme precipitation behaviour is significantly influenced by climate indices and non-stationary model 2 to describe the changes of extreme precipitation is better than non-stationary model 1, indicating the impact of large-scale climate forcing on the changes of extreme precipitation regimes; (c) the HJRB can be categorized into three homogenous regions. The optimal distributions and the main predictors of extreme precipitation events in most stations of each subregion are basically the same; (d) the dominated climate indices influencing the extreme precipitation events are different in different regions and have regional patterns. The results highlight the modelling of extreme precipitation events under non-stationarity conditions and provide information for developing strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change impacts on extreme precipitation.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144210
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
2.CSIRO, Data 61, Floreat, Australia
3.Tibet Autonomous Reg Hydrol Bur, Linzhi Branch, Linzhi, Peoples R China
4.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Res Ctr Flood & Drought Reduct, Beijing, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Hao, Wenlong,Shao, Quanxi,Hao, Zhenchun,et al. Non-stationary modelling of extreme precipitation by climate indices during rainy season in Hanjiang River Basin, China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019-01-01,39(10):4154-4169
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