globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/env.2550
WOS记录号: WOS:000474659600002
论文题名:
A periodic mixed linear state-space model to monthly long-term temperature data
作者: Costa, M.1,2; Monteiro, M.1,2
通讯作者: Costa, M.
刊名: ENVIRONMETRICS
ISSN: 1180-4009
EISSN: 1099-095X
出版年: 2019
卷: 30, 期:5
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air temperature ; climate change ; Kalman filter ; Portuguese cities ; seasonality ; time series analysis
WOS关键词: EXTREME TEMPERATURES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; KALMAN FILTER ; TIME-SERIES ; PORTUGAL ; HOMOGENIZATION ; SIMULATION ; SET
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Statistics & Probability
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics
英文摘要:

In recent decades, the world has been confronted with the consequences of global warming; however, this phenomenon is not reflected equally in every part of the globe. Thus, the warming phenomenon must be monitored in a more regional or local scale. This paper analyzes monthly long-term time series of air temperatures in three Portuguese cities: Lisbon, Oporto, and Coimbra. We propose a periodic state-space framework, associated with a suitable version of the Kalman filter; which allows for the estimation of monthly warming rates taking into account the seasonal behavior and serial correlation. Results about the monthly mean of the daily midrange temperature time series show that there are different monthly warming rates. The greatest annual mean rise was found in Oporto with 2.17 degrees C, whereas in Lisbon and Coimbra, it was respectively 0.62 degrees C and 0.55 degrees C per century.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144292
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Aveiro, Agueda Sch Technol & Management ESTGA, P-3754909 Agueda, Portugal
2.Univ Aveiro, Ctr Res & Dev Math & Applicat CIDMA, P-3754909 Agueda, Portugal

Recommended Citation:
Costa, M.,Monteiro, M.. A periodic mixed linear state-space model to monthly long-term temperature data[J]. ENVIRONMETRICS,2019-01-01,30(5)
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