globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3306
WOS记录号: WOS:000481537200003
论文题名:
The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe
作者: Koks, E. E.1,2; Thissen, M.3; Alfieri, L.4; De Moel, H.1; Feyen, L.3; Jongman, B.1,5; Aerts, J. C. J. H.1
通讯作者: Koks, E. E.
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN: 1748-9326
出版年: 2019
卷: 14, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; economic impacts ; river flooding ; disaster risk
WOS关键词: NATURAL DISASTERS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ECONOMIC-IMPACTS ; SUPPLY CHAINS ; INPUT-OUTPUT ; RISK ; FRAMEWORK ; MODEL ; JAPAN
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The economic impacts of disasters can reach far beyond the affected regions through interconnected transboundary trade flows. As quantification of these indirect impacts is complex, most disaster risk models focus on the direct impacts on assets and people in the impacted region. This study explicitly includes the indirect effects via regional economic interdependencies to model economic disaster losses on a continental scale, exemplified by river flooding in Europe. The results demonstrate that economic implications go beyond the direct damages typically considered. Moreover, we find that indirect losses can be offset by up to 60% by economic actors through finding alternative suppliers and markets within their existing trade relations. Towards the future, increases in economic flood losses (up to 350%) can be expected for all global warming scenarios. Indirect losses rise by 65% more compared to direct asset damages due to the increasing size of future flood events, making it more difficult to offset losses through alternative suppliers and markets. On a sectoral level, future increases in losses are highest for commercial services (similar to 980%) and public utilities (similar to 580%). As the latter are predominately affected through cascading effects, this highlights how interdependencies between economic actors could amplify future disaster losses.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144330
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, Amsterdam, Netherlands
2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England
3.Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands
4.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy
5.World Bank Grp, Washington, DC USA

Recommended Citation:
Koks, E. E.,Thissen, M.,Alfieri, L.,et al. The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(8)
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