globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.3390/w11081564
WOS记录号: WOS:000484561500038
论文题名:
Was Drought Really the Trigger Behind the Syrian Civil War in 2011?
作者: Karnieli, Arnon1; Shtein, Alexandra1; Panov, Natalya1; Weisbrod, Noam1; Tal, Alon2
通讯作者: Karnieli, Arnon
刊名: WATER
EISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Syrian Civil War ; Euphrates ; Turkish Southeastern Anatolia Project ; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ; discharge ; reservoir water level ; transborder groundwater flow
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER ; MANAGEMENT ; TURKEY
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

The role played by unsustainable resource management in initiating international conflicts is well documented. The Syrian Civil War, commencing in March 2011, presents such a case. The prevailing opinion links the unrest with sequential droughts occurring from 2007-2010. Our research, however, reveals that the winter-rainfed agricultural conditions before 2011, as detected by satellite-derived vegetation indices, were similar and even better for Syrian farmers than for those of their Turkish counterparts across the border. Concurrently, summer-irrigated crops, heavily dependent on Euphrates River water originating from Turkey, notably declined in Syria while flourishing in Turkey. These findings are firmly supported by other independent and validated datasets, including long-term cross-border discharge, the water level in Syrian and Turkish reservoirs, and transborder groundwater flow. We conclude that the Turkish policy of unilaterally diverting the Euphrates water was the main reason for the agricultural collapse and subsequent instability in Syria in 2011. The obvious inference is that while prolonged drought exacerbated conditions, unsustainable anthropogenic water management in Turkey was the proximate cause behind the Syrian uprising.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144389
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Sede Boker Campus, IL-84990 Sede Boqer, Israel
2.Tel Aviv Univ, Dept Publ Policy, IL-69978 Tel Aviv, Israel

Recommended Citation:
Karnieli, Arnon,Shtein, Alexandra,Panov, Natalya,et al. Was Drought Really the Trigger Behind the Syrian Civil War in 2011?[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(8)
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