globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.3390/w11081620
WOS记录号: WOS:000484561500094
论文题名:
System Dynamics Approach for Assessing the Behaviour of the Lim Reservoir System (Serbia) under Changing Climate Conditions
作者: Stojkovic, Milan; Simonovic, Slobodan P.
通讯作者: Stojkovic, Milan
刊名: WATER
EISSN: 2073-4441
出版年: 2019
卷: 11, 期:8
语种: 英语
英文关键词: system dynamics ; system analysis ; complex water system ; uncertainty assessment ; climate change ; regional climate models ; averaging procedures ; HEC-HMS ; Lim river ; Lim water systems
WOS关键词: CHANGE IMPACT ; RIVER-BASIN ; UNCERTAINTY ; OPERATIONS ; OPTIONS
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Investigating the impact of climate change on the management of a complex multipurpose water system is a critical issue. The presented study focuses on different steps of the climate change impact analysis process: (i) Use of three regional climate models (RCMs), (ii) use of four bias correction methods (BCMs), (iii) use of three concentration scenarios (CSs), (iv) use of two model averaging procedures, (v) use of the hydrological model and (vi) use of the system dynamics simulation model (SDSM). The analyses are performed for a future period, from 2006 to 2055 and the reference period, from 1971 to 2000. As a case study area, the Lim water system in Serbia (southeast Europe) is used. The Lim river system consists of four hydraulically connected reservoirs (Uvac, Kokin Brod, Radojnja, Potpec) with a primary purpose of hydropower generation. The results of the climate change impact analyses indicate change in the future hydropower generation at the annual level from -3.5% to +17.9%. The change has a seasonal variation with an increase for the winter season up to +20.3% and decrease for the summer season up to -33.6%. Furthermore, the study analyzes the uncertainty in the SDSM outputs introduced by different steps of the modelling process. The most dominant source of uncertainty in power production is the choice of BCMs (54%), followed by the selection of RCMs (41%). The least significant source of uncertainty is the choice of CSs (6%). The uncertainty in the inflows and outflows is equally dominated by the choice of BCM (49%) and RCM (45%).


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144394
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON N6A 3K7, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Stojkovic, Milan,Simonovic, Slobodan P.. System Dynamics Approach for Assessing the Behaviour of the Lim Reservoir System (Serbia) under Changing Climate Conditions[J]. WATER,2019-01-01,11(8)
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