globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.026
WOS记录号: WOS:000483908400039
论文题名:
Managing the trifecta of disease, climate, and contaminants: Searching for robust choices under multiple sources of uncertainty
作者: Smalling, Kelly L.1; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.2; Katz, Rachel A.3; Grant, Evan H. Campbell4
通讯作者: Smalling, Kelly L.
刊名: BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION
ISSN: 0006-3207
EISSN: 1873-2917
出版年: 2019
卷: 236, 页码:153-161
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: DIETARY MERCURY EXPOSURE ; BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS ; ACADIA-NATIONAL-PARK ; FRESH-WATER ; AMPHIBIAN DECLINES ; METHYL MERCURY ; LIFE-HISTORY ; VERNAL POOLS ; POPULATION ; WETLAND
WOS学科分类: Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Wood frogs, like other amphibian species worldwide, are experiencing population declines due to multiple stressors. In the northeastern United States, wood frog declines are thought to result from a reduction in successful metamorphosis in part due to climate change, disease (specifically ranavirus), and contaminant exposure. The presence of multiple stressors can increase uncertainty in characterizing the main effects of each stressor, as well as understanding the degree to which their effects interact (additively or synergistically) to impact populations. This uncertainty adds inherent challenges to selecting appropriate management actions for conserving populations. Finding solutions that are robust to these uncertainties can improve management amid absent or equivocal knowledge. We used a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN), a quantitative tool that allowed us to evaluate how potential management actions might mitigate the effects of increasingly frequent and severe droughts, ranavirus exposure, and methylmercury on wood frog populations in the northeastern U.S. In our system, successful wood frog recruitment was largely driven by hydroperiod regardless of other stressors. Our modelling indicated that increased hydroperiod lowered the probability of complete metamorphosis failure from 0.6 to 0.37, suggesting that under the conditions tested in the model, pond hydrology is more important for successful recruitment than either methylmercury or ranavirus exposure. As more information becomes available on stressor interactions, model scenarios could be re-evaluated, and management options reconsidered.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144472
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.US Geol Survey, New Jersey Water Sci Ctr, 3450 Princeton Pike,Suite 110, Lawrenceville, NJ 08648 USA
2.US Geol Survey, Forest & Rangeland Ecosyst Sci Ctr, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA
3.US Fish & Wildlife Serv, Natl Wildlife Refuge Syst, Hadley, MA 01035 USA
4.US Geol Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Res Ctr, 1 Migratory Way, Turners Falls, MA 01376 USA

Recommended Citation:
Smalling, Kelly L.,Eagles-Smith, Collin A.,Katz, Rachel A.,et al. Managing the trifecta of disease, climate, and contaminants: Searching for robust choices under multiple sources of uncertainty[J]. BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION,2019-01-01,236:153-161
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