globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0006.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000478615000001
论文题名:
Estimating the Local Time of Emergence of Climatic Variables Using an Unbiased Mapping of GCMs: An Application in Semiarid and Mediterranean Chile
作者: Chadwick, Cristian1; Gironas, Jorge2,3,4,5; Vicuna, Sebastian2,3,4; Meza, Francisco3,6
通讯作者: Chadwick, Cristian
刊名: JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY
ISSN: 1525-755X
EISSN: 1525-7541
出版年: 2019
卷: 20, 期:8, 页码:1635-1647
语种: 英语
英文关键词: South America ; Climate change ; Hydrology ; Anthropogenic effects ; Planning
WOS关键词: PRECIPITATION CHANGES ; MODEL ; MEGADROUGHT ; VARIABILITY ; IMPACTS ; SIGNALS ; TRENDS ; CMIP5 ; HEAT ; 20TH
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

The time at which climate change signal can be clearly distinguished from noise is known as time of emergence (ToE) and is typically detected by a general circulation model (GCM) signal-to-noise ratio exceeding a certain threshold. ToE is commonly estimated at large scales from GCMs, although management decisions and adaptation strategies are implemented locally. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate ToE for both precipitation and temperature at local scales (i.e., river basin). The methodology considers local climatic conditions and unbiased GCM projections to estimate ToE by using the statistical power to find when the climate significantly differs from the historical one. The method suggests that ToE for temperature already occurred in three Chilean basins (Limari, Maipo, and Maule). However, in terms of precipitation, an earlier ToE is clearly identified for the Maule basin, indicating that risk assessment and adaptation measures should be implemented first in this basin.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144644
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Chile, Fac Ciencias Forestales & Conservac Nat, Santiago, Chile
2.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Dept Ingn Hidraul & Ambiental, Santiago, Chile
3.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Ctr Interdisciplinario Cambio Global, Santiago, Chile
4.CONICYT FONDAP 15110017, Ctr Nacl Invest Gest Integrada Desastres Nat, Santiago, Chile
5.CONICYT FONDAP 15110020, Ctr Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable, Santiago, Chile
6.Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Agron & Ingn Forestal, Santiago, Chile

Recommended Citation:
Chadwick, Cristian,Gironas, Jorge,Vicuna, Sebastian,et al. Estimating the Local Time of Emergence of Climatic Variables Using an Unbiased Mapping of GCMs: An Application in Semiarid and Mediterranean Chile[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY,2019-01-01,20(8):1635-1647
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