globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2019.05.030
WOS记录号: WOS:000477784200023
论文题名:
Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2
作者: Chen, Xiaoping1,2,3,4; Qi, Zhiming1,2,5; Gui, Dongwei1,2; Gu, Zhe6; Ma, Liwang7; Zeng, Fanjiang1,2; Li, Lanhai1
通讯作者: Qi, Zhiming
刊名: AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0378-3774
EISSN: 1873-2283
出版年: 2019
卷: 222, 页码:231-241
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; GCMs ; RZWQM2 model ; Crop water requirement ; Seed cotton yield
WOS关键词: CSM-CROPGRO-COTTON ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; ELEVATED CO2 ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; BAYESIAN NETWORK ; TEMPERATURE ; GROWTH ; CHINA ; AGRICULTURE ; PHENOLOGY
WOS学科分类: Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Agriculture ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) yield and water demand is crucial in allocating water resources. In this study, cotton yield and water requirement under future climate scenarios was evaluated in Qira oasis, China. Six general circulation models (GCMs), under moderate and high representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (4.5 and 8.5) and elevated CO2 (eCO(2)) concentration (218-502ppm), were used to project climate for near (2041-2060) and far future (2061-2080) periods. With current management practices, the impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement were simulated using the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2), which was calibrated with experimental data (2007-2014) in a previous study. For the study region, the GCMs predicted an increase of 2.38 degrees C and 3.24 degrees C in temperature and 3.5% and 5.3% mm in precipitation during the growing seasons (April-October) for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, respectively. For 2041-2060, seed cotton yield was projected to increase by 0.24Mg ha(-1) (5.6%) under RCP4.5 and 0.19Mg ha(-1) (4.5%) under RCP8.5 comparing to the baseline yield of 4.23Mg ha(-1); however, for 2061-2080, the model predicted a 0.32Mg ha -1 (7.6%) yield increase under RCP4.5 but a 0.28Mg ha(-1) (6.5%) decrease under RCP8.5. The increased cotton yield was mainly attributable to the fertilization effect of eCO(2) dominating the detrimental effects of shorter growing seasons (8.0-9.5 days). Alleviated low temperature stress also slightly promoted cotton yield. Averaged across the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, simulated cropping season water requirement for the 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 were 728mm and 706mm, respectively, an decrease by 7.5% and 10.3% relative to the present day baseline (786mm), respectively. This decrease was attributed to shorter growing seasons and eCO(2). These results suggest that the region's agricultural water crisis may be alleviated in the future.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144662
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Xinjiang 830011, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Cele Natl Stn Observat & Res Desert Grassland Eco, Xinjiang 848300, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Key Lab Biogeog & Bioresource Arid Land, Xinjiang 830011, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
5.McGill Univ, Dept Bioresource Engn, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ, Canada
6.Hohai Univ, Coll Agr Engn, 1 Xikang Rd, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
7.USDA ARS, Rangeland Resources & Syst Res Unit, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA

Recommended Citation:
Chen, Xiaoping,Qi, Zhiming,Gui, Dongwei,et al. Simulating impacts of climate change on cotton yield and water requirement using RZWQM2[J]. AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,222:231-241
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Chen, Xiaoping]'s Articles
[Qi, Zhiming]'s Articles
[Gui, Dongwei]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Chen, Xiaoping]'s Articles
[Qi, Zhiming]'s Articles
[Gui, Dongwei]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Chen, Xiaoping]‘s Articles
[Qi, Zhiming]‘s Articles
[Gui, Dongwei]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.