We develop a new index which maps relative climate change contributions to relative emergent impacts of climate change. The index compares cumulative emissions data with patterns of signal-to-noise ratios (S/N) in regional temperature (Frame et al 2017 Nat. Clim. Change 7 407-11). The latter act as a proxy for a range of local climate impacts, so emergent patterns of this ratio provide an informative way of summarising the regional disparities of climate change impacts. Here we combine these with measures of regional/national contributions to climate change to develop an 'emissions-emergence index' (EEI) linking regions'/countries' contributions to climate change with the emergent regional impacts of climate change. The EEI is a simple but robust indicator which captures relative contributions to and regional impacts from climate change. We demonstrate the applicability of the EEI both for discussions of historical contributions and impacts, and for considering future relative contributions and impacts, and examine its utility in the context of existing related metrics. Finally, we show how future emissions pathways can either imply a growth or reduction of regional climate change inequalities depending on the type and compositions of socioeconomic development strategies.
1.Victoria Univ Wellington, Sch Geog Environm & Earth Sci, New Zealand Climate Change Res Inst, Wellington 6012, New Zealand 2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, South Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England 3.Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Wellington 6021, New Zealand 4.CICERO Ctr Int Climate, Pb 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway 5.Univ East Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England 6.Univ Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England
Recommended Citation:
Frame, David J.,Harrington, Luke J.,Fuglestvedt, Jan S.,et al. Emissions and emergence: a new index comparing relative contributions to climate change with relative climatic consequences[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019-01-01,14(8)