globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-019-01503-w
WOS记录号: WOS:000477615300012
论文题名:
Modeling Cedrus atlantica potential distribution in North Africa across time: new putative glacial refugia and future range shifts under climate change
作者: Bouahmed, Abdelkader1; Vessella, Federico2; Schirone, Bartolomeo2; Krouchi, Fazia1; Derridj, Arezki1
通讯作者: Bouahmed, Abdelkader
刊名: REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN: 1436-3798
EISSN: 1436-378X
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:6, 页码:1667-1682
语种: 英语
英文关键词: SDMs ; Cedrus atlantica ; Potential distribution ; Consensus model ; Climate change ; Glacial refugia ; North Africa
WOS关键词: SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELS ; MIDDLE ATLAS ; QUERCUS-SUBER ; ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGES ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; EXTINCTION-RISK ; CONSERVATION ; PREDICTION ; PLANT
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

In recent years, species distribution models have been used to gain a better understanding of past and future range dynamics of species. Here, we focus on a keystone species of the North African forest ecosystem (Cedrus atlantica) by calculating a consensus model of the species current geographic potential distribution in North Africa, based on a weighted average method aiming to decrease uncertainty. The consensus model is obtained using seven species distribution model algorithms taking into account 24 environmental variables. The model is then applied to several past and future time slices. Past projections refer to the Middle-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas those of future are related to expect conditions around 2050 and 2070. We found that the current potential distribution of Cedrus atlantica is larger than its actual geographical distribution. For some explanatory variables, the analysis revealed their importance for the species current distribution. Among all obtained models, that for the Middle-Holocene showed the maximum expansion of the species potential distribution. The Last Glacial Maximum model provided new putative glacial refugia of Cedrus atlantica, not shown by other mechanistic models and palaeorecord localities. Future projections revealed a significant and fast contraction with shifting in altitude of the species range, showing more fragmented areas and even species disappearance in many North African localities. These findings can help to restore cedar forests and conserve them by ex situ strategies according to the future defined refugia in North Africa. Attention should be paid to the resolution of related output maps, the current biotic interactions, and those that may arise under climate change.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144682
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Mouloud Mammeri, Lab Prod Ameliorat & Protect Vegetaux & Denrees A, Fac Sci Biol & Sci Agron, BP 17, Tizi Ouzou 15000, Algeria
2.Univ Tuscia, Dipartimento Sci Agr & Forestali DAFNE, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Bouahmed, Abdelkader,Vessella, Federico,Schirone, Bartolomeo,et al. Modeling Cedrus atlantica potential distribution in North Africa across time: new putative glacial refugia and future range shifts under climate change[J]. REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,2019-01-01,19(6):1667-1682
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