globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101220
WOS记录号: WOS:000477698300026
论文题名:
Precondition cloud algorithm and Copula coupling model-based approach for drought hazard comprehensive assessment
作者: Wu, Chengguo1,2; Zhou, Liyang1; Zhang, Libing1,2; Jin, Juliang1,2; Zhou, Yuliang1,2
通讯作者: Zhang, Libing
刊名: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
ISSN: 2212-4209
出版年: 2019
卷: 38
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought hazard assessment ; Precondition cloud algorithm ; Copulas ; Certainty degree ; Kunming city
WOS关键词: RIVER-BASIN ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS ; CHINA ; VARIABILITY ; SEVERITY ; DRY
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Drought is an extreme hydrological event that occurs frequently in many parts of the world due to the influence of climate change and human activity, and it is of significant importance to reasonably quantify the drought hazard to develop effective drought-resistant strategies. Therefore, the primary motivation of this study is to propose an alternative approach for drought hazard assessment which describes the uncertainty of drought hazard system by combining its randomness with fuzziness. Firstly, the joint probability distribution determined by Copulas function is applied to depict the randomness of drought indices, then the fuzzy certainty degree of drought hazard is computed by employing the forward precondition cloud algorithm, and finally, the precondition cloud generator and Copula (PCGC) coupling model-based approach for drought hazard assessment is developed. The application result of PCGC approach in Kunming city, China indicates that, the comprehensive drought hazard level of Kunming city exhibits a slight increasing trend from 1956 to 2011, especially from 1999 to 2011. Moreover, the average probabilities for the occurrence of future drought of level I, II, III, IV, and V in Kunming city are 0.3892, 0.3449, 0.2177, 0.0840 and 0.0028 respectively. Thus it can be seen that the proposed PCGC approach is effective, feasible, and accurate, which can be further applied in drought hazard identification and assessment field.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144689
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Hefei Univ Technol, Sch Civil Engn, Hefei 230009, Anhui, Peoples R China
2.Hefei Univ Technol, Inst Water Resources & Environm Syst Engn, Hefei 230009, Anhui, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Wu, Chengguo,Zhou, Liyang,Zhang, Libing,et al. Precondition cloud algorithm and Copula coupling model-based approach for drought hazard comprehensive assessment[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION,2019-01-01,38
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