globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0575.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000475909100001
论文题名:
Future Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in CORDEX-East Asia Multi-RCMs Forced by HadGEM2-AO
作者: Lee, Hyeonjae1; Jin, Chun-Sil2; Cha, Dong-Hyun1; Lee, Minkyu1; Lee, Dong-Kyou3; Suh, Myoung-Seok4; Hong, Song-You5; Kang, Hyun-Suk6
通讯作者: Cha, Dong-Hyun
刊名: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN: 0894-8755
EISSN: 1520-0442
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期:16, 页码:5053-5067
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere ; North Pacific Ocean ; Tropical cyclones ; Climate change ; Ensembles ; Regional models
WOS关键词: REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATION ; BOUNDARY-CONDITIONS ; MODEL ; ENSEMBLE ; PARAMETERIZATION ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; FREQUENCY ; PERFORMANCE ; VORTICES
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) are analyzed using four regional climate models (RCMs) within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia. All RCMs are forced by the HadGEM2-AO under the historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios, and are performed at about 50-km resolution over the CORDEX-East Asia domain. In the historical simulations (1980-2005), multi-RCM ensembles yield realistic climatology for TC tracks and genesis frequency during the TC season (June-November), although they show somewhat systematic biases in simulating TC activity. The future (2024-49) projections indicate an insignificant increase in the total number of TC genesis (+5%), but a significant increase in track density over East Asia coastal regions (+17%). The enhanced TC activity over the East Asia coastal regions is mainly related to vertical wind shear weakened by reduced meridional temperature gradient and increased sea surface temperature (SST) at midlatitudes. The future accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of total TCs increases significantly (+19%) because individual TCs have a longer lifetime (+6.6%) and stronger maximum wind speed (+4.1%) compared to those in the historical run. In particular, the ACE of TCs passing through 25 degrees N increases by 45.9% in the future climate, indicating that the destructiveness of TCs can be significantly enhanced in the midlatitudes despite the total number of TCs not changing greatly.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/144794
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Ulsan Natl Inst Sci & Technol, Ulsan, South Korea
2.Korea Inst Nucl Safety, Daejeon, South Korea
3.Seoul Natl Univ, Seoul, South Korea
4.Kongju Natl Univ, Kong Ju, South Korea
5.Korea Inst Atmospher Predict Syst, Seoul, South Korea
6.Korea Meteorol Adm, Seoul, South Korea

Recommended Citation:
Lee, Hyeonjae,Jin, Chun-Sil,Cha, Dong-Hyun,et al. Future Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in CORDEX-East Asia Multi-RCMs Forced by HadGEM2-AO[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019-01-01,32(16):5053-5067
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