globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166895
论文题名:
Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views
作者: James B. Elsner; Thomas H. Jagger; Tyler Fricker
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016-11-22
卷: 11, 期:11
英文关键词: Tornadoes ; El Niño-Southern Oscillation ; Population density ; Seasons ; Climatology ; Probability distribution ; Statistical models ; Gulf of Alaska
英文摘要: This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km. Refitting the model after removing the least damaging tornadoes from the data (EF0) produces a similar map but with the greatest tornado risk shifted south and eastward. Second, a space-time model is fit to the counts aggregated in raster cells with terms that control for changes in climate factors. Results provide a short-term view of risk. The short-term view identifies a shift of tornado activity away from the Ohio Valley under El Niño conditions and away from the Southeast under positive North Atlantic oscillation conditions. The combined predictor effects on the local rates is quantified by fitting the model after leaving out the year to be predicted from the data. The models provide state-of-the-art views of tornado risk that can be used by government agencies, the insurance industry, and the general public.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0166895
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14481
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States of America

Recommended Citation:
James B. Elsner,Thomas H. Jagger,Tyler Fricker. Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views[J]. PLOS ONE,2016-01-01,11(11)
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