NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE
; LAST MILLENNIUM
; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE
; PART I
; FIELD RECONSTRUCTION
; CLIMATE VARIABILITY
; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS
; SYSTEM MODELS
; PATTERNS
; RESOLUTION
WOS学科分类:
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向:
Geology
英文摘要:
Multidecadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive palaeoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multidecadal temperature fluctuations that are coherent with one another and with fully forced millennial model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 across the Common Era. A substantial portion of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multidecadal timescales is attributed to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multidecadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the twentieth century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.
1.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland 2.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Bern, Switzerland 3.Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Matemat CIMPA, San Jose, Costa Rica 4.No Arizona Univ, Sch Earth & Sustainabil, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Cenozo Geol & Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China 6.CAS Ctr Excellence Life & Paleoenvironm, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Univ Southern Calif, Dept Earth Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA 8.Univ Maryland, Dept Geol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA 9.Univ Maryland, ESSIC, College Pk, MD 20742 USA 10.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 11.British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, England 12.Heidelberg Univ, Inst Environm Phys, Heidelberg, Germany 13.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA 14.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 15.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia 16.Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 17.Stockholm Univ, Dept Hist, Stockholm, Sweden 18.Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden 19.Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge, England 20.PAGES Int Project Off, Bern, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Neukom, Raphael,Barboza, Luis A.,Erb, Michael P.,et al. Consistent multidecadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2019-01-01,12(8):643-+