globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0530-9
WOS记录号: WOS:000477738300020
论文题名:
Niche syndromes reveal climate-driven extinction threat to island endemic conifers
作者: Rosenblad, Kyle C.1,2; Perret, Daniel L.1,2; Sax, Dov F.1,2
通讯作者: Rosenblad, Kyle C.
刊名: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
出版年: 2019
卷: 9, 期:8, 页码:627-+
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: GLOBAL ASSESSMENT ; INVASION ; RECORDS ; SHIFTS ; FLORA ; SIZE
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause many extinctions worldwide(1). Although species endemic to islands or archipelagos have high conservation value and are vulnerable to human impacts(2,3), there has been no global analysis of climate-driven extinction risk focused on island endemics. Here, we use conifers as a model system to assess extinction risk among island endemics under climate projections for 2070. We employ the emerging technique of combining native and non-native occurrence data to model climatic conditions under which each species can sustain a population(4-7) and also incorporate horticultural data to model the broader range of conditions that allow short-term survival. Our projections indicate that some species will retain suitable climatic conditions, some will experience conditions completely precluding survival and others will experience intermediate-risk conditions that lead to population decline and eventual extinction. Based on different climate change models, we report island size thresholds of 400 to 20,000 km(2), below which extinction risks increase. These patterns are driven by correlations among island area and the breadth of species' realized, fundamental and tolerance niches. Notably, realized and fundamental niche breadth are positively correlated. Our results highlight management interventions needed to protect species from climate-driven extinction across islands of different sizes.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/145100
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Brown Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Providence, RI 02912 USA
2.Brown Univ, Inst Brown Environm & Soc, Providence, RI 02912 USA

Recommended Citation:
Rosenblad, Kyle C.,Perret, Daniel L.,Sax, Dov F.. Niche syndromes reveal climate-driven extinction threat to island endemic conifers[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,9(8):627-+
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