globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.04.006
WOS记录号: WOS:000470965300011
论文题名:
Projecting impacts of climate change on global terrestrial ecoregions
作者: Yu, Deyong1; Liu, Yupeng1,2; Shi, Peijun1; Wu, Jianguo1,3,4
通讯作者: Yu, Deyong
刊名: ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN: 1470-160X
EISSN: 1872-7034
出版年: 2019
卷: 103, 页码:114-123
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biodiversity conservation ; Ecological risk ; Ecosystem service ; Dynamic vegetation model ; Shifted climatic mean ; Climatic extreme
WOS关键词: HABITAT LOSS ; EXTINCTION RISK ; BIODIVERSITY ; CONSERVATION ; RESPONSES ; WORLDS ; REPRESENTATION ; ECOSYSTEMS ; SCENARIOS ; HOTSPOTS
WOS学科分类: Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Terrestrial ecoregions, including critical ecoregions (CEs), vulnerable ecoregions (VEs), and intact ecoregions (IEs) have been used by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) to classify global biodiversity and are being affected by climate change, which was considered as one of the main threats to biodiversity conservation. However, the impacts of future climate change in shifted means and extremes of temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover under the representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) on the characteristics of these ecoregions have yet to be fully understood. The present study was designed using a dynamic global vegetation model and both current and future climate scenarios, to investigate the impacts of shifted means and extremes of temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover on five ecological indicators including net primary productivity (NPP), carbon storage, runoff, wildfire risk, and habitat transformation at the ecoregional scale. The analysis was performed for the terrestrial ecoregions as a whole, as well as for specific subsets of CEs, VEs, and IEs. The results showed that future climate scenarios (whether RCP 2.6, 4.5, or 8.5) were estimated to increase the mean NPP, runoff, wildfire risk, and habitat transformation for all ecoregion types, when comparing values for 2071-2100 to the baseline (1971-2000) period. In contrast, the mean carbon storage in the TEWs, VEs, and CEs was estimated to decrease from the baseline to the values under RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 and then increase to their largest values under RCP 8.5. The mean carbon storage in the IEs under RCP 8.5 was estimated to remain lower than the baseline period values. Climate change in shifted means and extremes of temperature, precipitation, and cloud cover are generally significant drivers of the variances of NPP, carbon storage, runoff, wildfire risk, and habitat transformation under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. The dynamics of the climate change metrics and the five ecological indicators have significant implications for biodiversity conservation in changing climates.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/145115
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Beijing Normal Univ, CHESS, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Urban Environm & Hlth, Inst Urban Environm, 1799 Jimei Rd, Xiamen 361021, Fujian, Peoples R China
3.Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA
4.Arizona State Univ, Sch Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA

Recommended Citation:
Yu, Deyong,Liu, Yupeng,Shi, Peijun,et al. Projecting impacts of climate change on global terrestrial ecoregions[J]. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,2019-01-01,103:114-123
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