globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.308
WOS记录号: WOS:000468618900064
论文题名:
An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities: An illustration for Los Angeles
作者: de Ruig, Lars T.1; Barnard, Patrick L.2; Botzen, W. J. Wouter1,3,4; Grifman, Phyllis5; Hart, Juliette Finzi2; de Moel, Hans1; Sadrpour, Nick5; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.1
通讯作者: de Ruig, Lars T.
刊名: SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN: 0048-9697
EISSN: 1879-1026
出版年: 2019
卷: 678, 页码:647-659
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Adaptation pathways ; Climate change ; Cost-benefit analysis ; Flood risk analysis ; Uncertainty ; Sea level rise
WOS关键词: SEA-LEVEL RISE ; REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS ; FLOOD ; RESILIENCE ; LIMITATIONS ; MANAGEMENT ; BENEFITS
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

Sea level rise and uncertainty in its projections pose a major challenge to flood risk management and adaptation investments in coastal mega cities. This study presents a comparative economic evaluation method for flood adaptation measures, which couples a cost-benefit analysis with the concept of adaptation pathways. Our approach accounts for uncertainty in sea level rise projections by allowing for flexibility of adaptation strategies over time. Our method is illustrated for Los Angeles County which is vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise. Results for different sea level rise scenarios show that applying adaptation pathways can result in higher economic efficiency (up to 10%) than individual adaptation strategies, despite the loss of efficiency at the initial strategy. However, we identified 'investment tipping points', after which a transition could decrease the economic efficiencies of a pathway significantly. Overall, we recommend that studies evaluating adaptation strategies should integrate cost-benefit analysis frameworks with adaptation pathways since this allows for better informing decision makers about the robustness and economic desirability of their investment choices. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/145522
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, De Boelelaan 1085, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands
2.US Geol Survey, Pacif Coastal & Marine Sci Ctr, 2885 Mission St, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 USA
3.Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Ctr Risk Management & Decis Proc, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
4.Univ Utrecht, Sch Econ, Kriekenpitpl 21-22, NL-3584 EC Utrecht, Netherlands
5.Univ Southern Calif Sea Grant, 3454 Trousdale Pkwy,CAS 200, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA

Recommended Citation:
de Ruig, Lars T.,Barnard, Patrick L.,Botzen, W. J. Wouter,et al. An economic evaluation of adaptation pathways in coastal mega cities: An illustration for Los Angeles[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2019-01-01,678:647-659
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