globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0126774
论文题名:
The Trends in Excess Mortality in Winter vs. Summer in a Sub-Tropical City and Its Association with Extreme Climate Conditions
作者: Pui Hing Chau; Jean Woo
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2015
发表日期: 2015-5-20
卷: 10, 期:5
英文关键词: Winter ; Summer ; Weather ; Death rates ; Age groups ; Humidity ; Cerebrovascular diseases ; Pneumonia
英文摘要: While there is literature on excess winter mortality, there are few studies examining the evolution of its trend which may be changing in parallel with global warming. This study aimed to examine the trend in the excess mortality in winter as compared to summer among the older population in a sub-tropical city and to explore its association with extreme weather. We used a retrospective study based on the registered deaths among the older population in Hong Kong during 1976-2010. An Excess Mortality for Winter versus Summer (EMWS) Index was used to quantify the excess number of deaths in winter compared to summer. Multiple linear regressions were used to analyze the trends and its association with extreme weather. Overall, the EMWS Index for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, chronic lower respiratory diseases, pneumonia, and other causes were 43.0%, 34.2%, 42.7%, 23.4% and 17.6%, respectively. Significant decline was observed in the EMWS Index for chronic lower respiratory diseases and other causes. The trend in the index for cerebrovascular diseases depended on the age group, with older groups showing a decline but younger groups not showing any trend. Meteorological variables, in terms of extreme weather, were associated with the trends in the EMWS Index. We concluded that shrinking excess winter mortality from cerebrovascular diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases was found in a sub-tropical city. These trends were associated with extreme weather, which coincided with global warming.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0126774
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14552
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: School of Nursing, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Recommended Citation:
Pui Hing Chau,Jean Woo. The Trends in Excess Mortality in Winter vs. Summer in a Sub-Tropical City and Its Association with Extreme Climate Conditions[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(5)
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