globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.8b06586
WOS记录号: WOS:000482521600059
论文题名:
How Much Are We Saving after All? Characterizing the Effects of Commonly Varying Assumptions on Emissions and Damage Estimates in PJM
作者: Donti, Priya L.1,2; Kolter, J. Zico2,3; Azevedo, Ines Lima1,4
通讯作者: Donti, Priya L. ; Kolter, J. Zico ; Azevedo, Ines Lima
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
ISSN: 0013-936X
EISSN: 1520-5851
出版年: 2019
卷: 53, 期:16, 页码:9905-9914
语种: 英语
WOS关键词: MARGINAL EMISSIONS ; ELECTRICITY-GENERATION ; DEMAND RESPONSE ; NATURAL-GAS ; HEALTH ; BENEFITS ; CLIMATE ; SYSTEM ; SWITCH ; WIND
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

In recent years, several methods have emerged to estimate the emissions and health, environmental, and climate change damages avoided by interventions such as energy efficiency, demand response, and the integration of renewables. However, differing assumptions employed in these analyses could yield contradicting recommendations regarding intervention implementation. We test the magnitude of the effect of using different key assumptions-average vs marginal emissions, year of calculation, temporal and regional scope, and inclusion of nonemitting generation-to estimate Mid-Atlantic region power pool (PJM) emissions and damage factors. We further highlight the importance of factor selection by evaluating three illustrative 2017 power system examples in PJM. We find that for a simple building lighting intervention, using average emissions factors incorporating nonemitting generation underestimates avoided damages by 45% compared to marginal factors. For PJM demand response, outdated marginal emissions factors from 2016 overestimate avoided damages by 25% compared to 2017 factors. Our assessment of PJM summer load further suggests that fossil-only average emissions factors overestimate damages by 63% compared to average factors incorporating nonemitting generation. We recommend that energy modelers carefully select appropriate emissions metrics when performing their analyses. Furthermore, since the U.S. electric grid is rapidly changing, we urge decision-makers to frequently update (and consider forecasting) grid emissions factors.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/145645
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作者单位: 1.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
2.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Comp Sci Dept, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
3.Bosch Ctr Artificial Intelligence, Pittsburgh, PA 15222 USA
4.Stanford Univ, Sch Earth Energy & Environm, Dept Energy Resources Engn, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

Recommended Citation:
Donti, Priya L.,Kolter, J. Zico,Azevedo, Ines Lima. How Much Are We Saving after All? Characterizing the Effects of Commonly Varying Assumptions on Emissions and Damage Estimates in PJM[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,2019-01-01,53(16):9905-9914
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