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DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091831
论文题名:
Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave
作者: Gulrez Shah Azhar; Dileep Mavalankar; Amruta Nori-Sarma; Ajit Rajiva; Priya Dutta; Anjali Jaiswal; Perry Sheffield; Kim Knowlton; Jeremy J. Hess
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2014
发表日期: 2014-3-14
卷: 9, 期:3
英文关键词: Death rates ; India ; Public and occupational health ; Climate change ; Weather ; Meteorology ; Air pollution ; Seasons
英文摘要: Introduction In the recent past, spells of extreme heat associated with appreciable mortality have been documented in developed countries, including North America and Europe. However, far fewer research reports are available from developing countries or specific cities in South Asia. In May 2010, Ahmedabad, India, faced a heat wave where the temperatures reached a high of 46.8°C with an apparent increase in mortality. The purpose of this study is to characterize the heat wave impact and assess the associated excess mortality. Methods We conducted an analysis of all-cause mortality associated with a May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India, to determine whether extreme heat leads to excess mortality. Counts of all-cause deaths from May 1–31, 2010 were compared with the mean of counts from temporally matched periods in May 2009 and 2011 to calculate excess mortality. Other analyses included a 7-day moving average, mortality rate ratio analysis, and relationship between daily maximum temperature and daily all-cause death counts over the entire year of 2010, using month-wise correlations. Results The May 2010 heat wave was associated with significant excess all-cause mortality. 4,462 all-cause deaths occurred, comprising an excess of 1,344 all-cause deaths, an estimated 43.1% increase when compared to the reference period (3,118 deaths). In monthly pair-wise comparisons for 2010, we found high correlations between mortality and daily maximum temperature during the locally hottest “summer” months of April (r = 0.69, p<0.001), May (r = 0.77, p<0.001), and June (r = 0.39, p<0.05). During a period of more intense heat (May 19–25, 2010), mortality rate ratios were 1.76 [95% CI 1.67–1.83, p<0.001] and 2.12 [95% CI 2.03–2.21] applying reference periods (May 12–18, 2010) from various years. Conclusion The May 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India had a substantial effect on all-cause excess mortality, even in this city where hot temperatures prevail through much of April-June.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0091831
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/14565
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Indian Institute of Public Health, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

Recommended Citation:
Gulrez Shah Azhar,Dileep Mavalankar,Amruta Nori-Sarma,et al. Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(3)
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