globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1177/0022343319863474
WOS记录号: WOS:000483491900001
论文题名:
Temperatures, food riots, and adaptation: A long-term historical analysis of England
作者: De Juan, Alexander1; Wegenast, Tim2
通讯作者: De Juan, Alexander
刊名: JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH
ISSN: 0022-3433
EISSN: 1460-3578
出版年: 2019
语种: 英语
英文关键词: adaptation ; climate change ; England ; food riots ; wheat prices
WOS关键词: CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SPATIALLY EXPLICIT ; VARIABILITY ; CONFLICT ; RAINFALL ; STRATEGIES ; WEATHER ; AFRICA ; RISK ; BIAS
WOS学科分类: International Relations ; Political Science
WOS研究方向: International Relations ; Government & Law
英文摘要:

A large body of research indicates that environmental conditions can influence the risk of social unrest. However, we know little about how these effects may change in the long run. Are they likely to remain constant or do they change over time - for example as a consequence of human adaptation? To investigate this question, we rely on a disaggregated analysis of England over a period of more than 300 years. Combining data on geo-referenced food riots with reconstructed climate data, we first assess the impact of annual temperatures on social unrest over the period 1500-1817. We then use our long-term time-series dataset to assess the temporal heterogeneity of year-to-year associations between temperatures and social conflict. Our models show a substantive negative correlation between temperatures and food riots in the aggregate. This association, however, seems to be highly inconsistent over time and largely confined to the 18th century. In addition, we find evidence of decadal processes of adaptation: past exposure to adverse weather conditions dampens the effect of current exposure. Taken together, these findings underline the importance of considering temporal heterogeneities when assessing the climate-conflict nexus and caution against any simple extrapolations of observable present-day effects of environmental conditions into the future.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/145660
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Osnabruck, Sch Cultural Studies & Social Sci, Osnabruck, Germany
2.Univ Konstanz, Dept Polit & Publ Adm, Constance, Germany

Recommended Citation:
De Juan, Alexander,Wegenast, Tim. Temperatures, food riots, and adaptation: A long-term historical analysis of England[J]. JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH,2019-01-01
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