globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2019.04.002
WOS记录号: WOS:000482870900020
论文题名:
Climate-related uncertainties in urban exposure to sea level rise and storm surge flooding: a multi-temporal and multi-scenario analysis
作者: Ju, Yang1; Lindbergh, Sarah1; He, Yiyi1; Radke, John D.1,2
通讯作者: Ju, Yang
刊名: CITIES
ISSN: 0264-2751
EISSN: 1873-6084
出版年: 2019
卷: 92, 页码:230-246
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Sea level rise ; Flood exposure ; Uncertainty ; Stakeholders ; Climate change
WOS关键词: SURFACE-WATER ; VULNERABILITY ; ADAPTATION ; IMPACT ; CITIES ; INUNDATION ; NETWORKS ; FUTURE ; HAZARD ; MODEL
WOS学科分类: Urban Studies
WOS研究方向: Urban Studies
英文摘要:

Climate change-induced sea level rise and intensified storms pose emerging flood threats to global coastal urban areas. While such threats have been mapped, their uncertainties from different climate scenarios and longer planning horizons have yet to be addressed from both an exposure assessment and a stakeholder outreach perspective. Therefore, we chose the highly urbanized San Francisco Bay Area as an example to project its flood areas every 20 years between 2000 and 2100, under 24 varied climate scenarios with two greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration levels. We then assessed flood exposure by intersecting the flood areas with demographic and socioeconomic distributions, developed areas, lifeline infrastructures, and emergency responders in low elevation ( < 10 m) coastal zones. Our median estimates under the low GHG scenarios indicated that 10-38% of the items assessed above are flood-exposed in 2000-2020, with this exposure increasing to 20-54% during 2080-2100. The median estimates under the high GHG scenarios for the same periods are 0-35% and 40-67%, respectively. The expected uncertainties, or standard deviations, of the exposures for a given item assessed above under the low and high GHG scenarios are 1-2% in 2000-2020 and 7-10% in 2080-2100. Despite our modeling capability for a range of climate scenarios over the long term, some stakeholders, particularly those in the private sector, prefer near-term results with lower uncertainties. This implies the need for coastal urban areas to cope with climate-related uncertainties and to focus on the long term when developing strategies and policies for climate change adaptation.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/145957
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Landscape Architecture & Environm Planning, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
2.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept City & Reg Planning, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

Recommended Citation:
Ju, Yang,Lindbergh, Sarah,He, Yiyi,et al. Climate-related uncertainties in urban exposure to sea level rise and storm surge flooding: a multi-temporal and multi-scenario analysis[J]. CITIES,2019-01-01,92:230-246
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Ju, Yang]'s Articles
[Lindbergh, Sarah]'s Articles
[He, Yiyi]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Ju, Yang]'s Articles
[Lindbergh, Sarah]'s Articles
[He, Yiyi]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Ju, Yang]‘s Articles
[Lindbergh, Sarah]‘s Articles
[He, Yiyi]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.