globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.07.001
WOS记录号: WOS:000485107000016
论文题名:
Quantile-based downscaling of rainfall extremes: Notes on methodological functionality, associated uncertainty and application in practice
作者: Hassanzadeh, Elmira1; Nazemi, Ali2; Adamowski, Jan3; Truong-Huy Nguyen4; Van-Thanh Van-Nguyen4
通讯作者: Hassanzadeh, Elmira
刊名: ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES
ISSN: 0309-1708
EISSN: 1872-9657
出版年: 2019
卷: 131
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Extreme rainfall quantiles ; Design storms ; Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves ; Climate change ; Quantile-based downscaling ; Benchmarking
WOS关键词: DURATION-FREQUENCY CURVES ; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; IDF-CURVES ; REGIONAL CLIMATE ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; FUTURE CHANGES ; PRECIPITATION ; INTENSITY ; MODEL ; ONTARIO
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

Local characteristics of extreme rainfall quantiles, manifested through Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, are key to infrastructure design. Due to climate change, rainfall extremes are subject to changes, it is, therefore, crucial to explore the potential impacts these changes will have on design storms. A new strain of methodologies, quantile-based downscaling approaches, have recently been proposed to exclusively downscale extreme rainfall quantiles obtained from Global Climate Models (GCMs). These approaches, however, have not been systematically intercompared and the uncertainties related to assigning future design storms are poorly understood. This study evaluates the functionality of three quantile-based downscaling methods during the historical and future periods in Montreal, Canada. Results show that the performance of quantile-based downscaling approaches in reproducing observed extreme quantiles can be divergent. At lower return periods, however, differences between the three schemes are not significant. Similar performances for reproducing historical rainfall extremes, however, does not necessarily imply similar future projections due to the different functionalities of the three approaches in mapping GCM projections into finer scales. Despite these uncertainties, the total projection range of future rainfall extremes are, in many cases, comparable to the confidence interval of the parametric probability distribution when fitted to the observed annual maximum rainfall series. A risk-based approach to accommodate this uncertainty in vulnerability assessments through evaluating potential alterations in historical rainfall extremes using an ensemble projection coming from multiple downscaling approaches is suggested. This allows for the selection of design storms based on the acceptable level of risk and given budgetary and operational restrictions.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/145978
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Polytech Montreal, Dept Genies Civil Geol & Mines, Montreal, PQ, Canada
2.Concordia Univ, Dept Bldg Civil & Environm Engn, Montreal, PQ, Canada
3.McGill Univ, Dept Bioresource Engn, Montreal, PQ, Canada
4.McGill Univ, Dept Civil Engn & Appl Mech, Montreal, PQ, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Hassanzadeh, Elmira,Nazemi, Ali,Adamowski, Jan,et al. Quantile-based downscaling of rainfall extremes: Notes on methodological functionality, associated uncertainty and application in practice[J]. ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES,2019-01-01,131
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