globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1139/er-2018-0070
WOS记录号: WOS:000483087100010
论文题名:
Managing risks to Canada's boreal zone: transdisciplinary thinking in pursuit of sustainability
作者: Creed, Irena F.1,2; Duinker, Peter N.3; Serran, Jacqueline N.2; Steenberg, James W. N.3,4
通讯作者: Creed, Irena F.
刊名: ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEWS
ISSN: 1208-6053
EISSN: 1181-8700
出版年: 2019
卷: 27, 期:3, 页码:407-418
语种: 英语
英文关键词: boreal zone ; ecosystem services ; risk management ; scenario analysis ; energy transition
WOS关键词: NATURAL-RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SUSPENDING DISBELIEF ; ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ; SCENARIO ANALYSIS ; FOREST ; IMPACTS ; BIODIVERSITY ; PROGNOSIS ; FUTURES
WOS学科分类: Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向: Environmental Sciences & Ecology
英文摘要:

The policy landscape is changing as Canada considers its energy future. The Canadian boreal zone has a large amount of natural resources, giving Canada options in terms of its energy future. However, the sustainability of the boreal zone has been deemed at risk because of the cumulative effects of intensifying natural resource activities (forestry, mining, oil and gas, and renewable energy) on ecosystems in the face of the uncertainty associated with climate change. As Canada considers the future of the boreal zone, there will be additional challenges to ensure that we do not further disadvantage marginalized human populations living in the boreal zone who are at high risk of the consequences of climate change. In response to these challenges, the Boreal 2050 project was initiated to understand the risk of failing to achieve the future sustainability of the boreal zone using the ISO 31000 risk management framework. First, we identified the major drivers of the risks to the sustainability of the boreal zone, which include atmospheric change, the demand for provisioning and nonprovisioning ecosystem services, demographics and societal values, industrial innovation and infrastructure, and governance. Second, we analyzed the risk of failing to achieve a sustainable boreal zone using scenario analysis, where we framed four plausible future scenarios around two axes of change: the global economy's energy and society's capacity to adapt. Third, we evaluated the risk and determined that present governance systems are driving Canada towards failing to achieve a sustainable boreal zone. To ensure the future sustainability of the boreal, we need to shift from an oil/gas/coal-producing country to a renewable energy leader and shift from using a top-down strategy where Canadians have a low capacity to adapt towards a mixture of top-down and bottom-up participatory strategies where Canadians-particularly Indigenous peoples living in the boreal zone-have a higher capacity to adapt. To facilitate this shift in governance, substantive changes will be required in institutional arrangements designed to protect boreal ecosystems.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/145999
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作者单位: 1.Univ Saskatchewan, Sch Environm & Sustainabil, 117 Sci Pl, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5C8, Canada
2.Western Univ, Dept Biol, 1151 Richmond St, London, ON N6A 5K7, Canada
3.Dalhousie Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Studies, 6100 Univ Ave, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
4.Nova Scotia Dept Lands & Forestry, 15 Arlington Pl, Truro, NS B2N 0G9, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Creed, Irena F.,Duinker, Peter N.,Serran, Jacqueline N.,et al. Managing risks to Canada's boreal zone: transdisciplinary thinking in pursuit of sustainability[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEWS,2019-01-01,27(3):407-418
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