globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02350-4
WOS记录号: WOS:000485317700018
论文题名:
Application of Heuristic Approaches for Prediction of Hydrological Drought Using Multi-scalar Streamflow Drought Index
作者: Malik, Anurag1; Kumar, Anil1; Singh, Rajesh P.2
通讯作者: Malik, Anurag
刊名: WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN: 0920-4741
EISSN: 1573-1650
出版年: 2019
卷: 33, 期:11, 页码:3985-4006
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought prediction ; SDI ; ACF and PACF ; Ramganga River basin ; Uttarakhand
WOS关键词: FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM ; STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION ; NEURAL-NETWORK ; RIVER-BASIN ; MODEL PERFORMANCE ; WAVELET ; ANFIS ; ALGORITHM ; MACHINE
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

Quantification and prediction of drought events are important for planning and management of water resources in coping with climate change scenarios at global and local scales. In this study, heuristic approaches including Co-Active Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (CANFIS), Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) were utilized to predict the hydrological drought based on multi-scalar Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) at Naula and Kedar stations located in upper Ramganga River basin, Uttarakhand State, India. The SDI was calculated on 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12- and 24-month time scales (SDI-1, SDI-3, SDI-6, SDI-9, SDI-12, and SDI-24) using monthly streamflow data of 33 years (1975-2007). The significant input variables (lags) for CANFIS, MLPNN, and MLR models were derived using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions (ACF &PACF) at 5% significance level on SDI-1, SDI-3, SDI-6, SDI-9, SDI-12 and SDI-24 data series. The predicted values of multi-scalar SDI using CANFIS, MLPNN and MLR models were compared with the calculated values, based on root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (COC) and Willmott index (WI). The visual interpretation was also made using line diagram, scatter diagram and Taylor diagram (TD). The results of analysis revealed that the performance of CANFIS models was the best for hydrological drought prediction at 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales for Naula station, and at 1-, 3-, 12- and 24-month time scales for Kedar station; while MLPNN was the best at 1- and 9-month time scales for Naula station, and at 6- and 9-month time scales for Kedar station. The MLR model was found to be the best at 24-month time scale for Naula station only. The results of this study could be helpful in prediction of hydrological drought on multiple time scales and decision making for remedial schemes to cope with hydrological drought at Naula and Kedar stations.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146004
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.GB Pant Univ Agr & Technol, Coll Technol, Dept Soil & Water Conservat Engn, Pantnagar 263145, Uttar Pradesh, India
2.GB Pant Univ Agr & Technol, Coll Technol, Dept Irrigat & Drainage Engn, Pantnagar 263145, Uttar Pradesh, India

Recommended Citation:
Malik, Anurag,Kumar, Anil,Singh, Rajesh P.. Application of Heuristic Approaches for Prediction of Hydrological Drought Using Multi-scalar Streamflow Drought Index[J]. WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,2019-01-01,33(11):3985-4006
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