globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0832.1
WOS记录号: WOS:000477763000001
论文题名:
Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth-Century North American Drought in a Warmer World
作者: Cook, Benjamin I.1,2; Seager, Richard2; Williams, A. Park3; Puma, Michael J.4; McDermid, Sonali5; Kelley, Maxwell1; Nazarenko, Larissa1
通讯作者: Cook, Benjamin I.
刊名: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN: 0894-8755
EISSN: 1520-0442
出版年: 2019
卷: 32, 期:17, 页码:5417-5436
语种: 英语
英文关键词: North America ; Drought ; Climate change ; Climate models
WOS关键词: WATER-USE EFFICIENCY ; SOUTHWESTERN UNITED-STATES ; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; CALIFORNIA DROUGHT ; PRECIPITATION ; TELECONNECTIONS ; RESPONSES ; NETWORK ; PROJECT ; SURFACE
WOS学科分类: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:

In the mid-twentieth century (1948-57), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth-century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth-century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October-March) across the Southwest, southern plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April-September) in the southern plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, approximate to 3 K above preindustrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and southern plains and intensified in the Southeast, whereas during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas-forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and southern plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern United States, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas-forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146092
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
2.Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Div Ocean & Climate Phys, Palisades, NY 10964 USA
3.Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Tree Ring Lab, Palisades, NY USA
4.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA
5.NYU, Dept Environm Studies, New York, NY USA

Recommended Citation:
Cook, Benjamin I.,Seager, Richard,Williams, A. Park,et al. Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth-Century North American Drought in a Warmer World[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019-01-01,32(17):5417-5436
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