globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.2166/ws.2019.062
WOS记录号: WOS:000473773600034
论文题名:
Assessing future drought conditions under a changing climate: a case study of the Lake Urmia basin in Iran
作者: Ahmadebrahimpour, Edris1; Aminnejad, Babak1; Khalili, Keivan2
通讯作者: Aminnejad, Babak
刊名: WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY-WATER SUPPLY
ISSN: 1606-9749
出版年: 2019
卷: 19, 期:6, 页码:1851-1861
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change ; drought ; RCP 2.6 projection ; RCP 8.5 projection ; SPEI ; SPI
WOS关键词: WATER ; SCENARIOS ; INDEX
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

This study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on drought over the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. Drought events for 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 were analyzed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and were compared with the adopted baseline period (1976-2005). The SPI and SPEI were calculated using the precipitation and temperatures obtained from the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 as optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. The results of SPI analyses revealed that under RCP 2.6 the frequency of droughts is almost constant while under RCP 8.5 drought frequency increased especially in the period 2071-2100. The calculated SEPI under both scenarios and during all future periods predict that the frequency and duration of droughts will increase. Generally, the difference between the SPI and SPEI is related to the input to each index. SPI is solely based on precipitation while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Under global warming and changing climate, the significant role of PET was highlighted. It was concluded that the SPEI outperformed the SPI for drought studies under a changing climate.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146139
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Islamic Azad Univ, Roudehen Branch, Dept Civil Engn, Roudehen, Iran
2.Urmia Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Water Engn, Orumiyeh, Iran

Recommended Citation:
Ahmadebrahimpour, Edris,Aminnejad, Babak,Khalili, Keivan. Assessing future drought conditions under a changing climate: a case study of the Lake Urmia basin in Iran[J]. WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY-WATER SUPPLY,2019-01-01,19(6):1851-1861
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