CHINESE HISTORY
; DYNASTIC CYCLES
; QING DYNASTY
; NORTH CHINA
; MIGRATION
; IMPACTS
; EPIDEMICS
; WARS
WOS学科分类:
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向:
Geology
英文摘要:
This case study of the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China, utilizes statistical methods to estimate quantitatively the interaction at a regional level between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies over the past 2000 years. The data is sourced from high-resolution reconstructions of climate series (temperature and precipitation), and historical records of cultivated land, war, population, and changes in regional administrative systems. The results show that moisture conditions played a more significant role than temperature in driving land reclamation in the Hexi Corridor. Analysis also showed a negative correlation between war frequency and the area of cultivated land in the Corridor over 20-year time intervals. Population growth was found to have a significant positive correlation with the cultivated land area during the study period. The results indicate that a climate-induced decline in agricultural production and the subsequent fluctuations in population could act as a trigger for social unrest, which is especially true at the mutual decadal time-scales. However, the interaction with administrative reform also suggests that, in the face of social and economic turmoil, a reasonable administrative hierarchy could strengthen the social governance of regional government, and promote social stability and economic development at a regional level. The study substantiates this notion with empirical quantitative evidence.
Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation:
Li, Yanpeng,Ge, Quansheng,Wang, Huanjiong,et al. Relationships between climate change, agricultural development and social stability in the Hexi Corridor over the last 2000 years[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2019-01-01,62(9):1453-1460