globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2018.099
WOS记录号: WOS:000482221200001
论文题名:
Investigating the variability of GCMs' simulations using time series analysis
作者: Zolghadr-Asli, Babak1; Bozorg-Haddad, Omid1; Sarzaeim, Parisa1; Chu, Xuefeng2
通讯作者: Bozorg-Haddad, Omid
刊名: JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN: 2040-2244
出版年: 2019
卷: 10, 期:3, 页码:449-463
语种: 英语
英文关键词: autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model ; climate change ; deseasonalizing ; detrending ; time series analysis ; water resources management
WOS关键词: KARKHEH RIVER-BASIN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MIDDLE-EAST ; MODEL EVALUATION ; PRECIPITATION ; QUANTIFICATION ; PROJECTIONS ; TRENDS ; TESTS ; IRAN
WOS学科分类: Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Water Resources
英文摘要:

The natural vulnerability to the climate change phenomenon due to the unique topographic and climatic conditions in the Middle East adds significance to an already important issue of evaluating the simulations of general circulation models (GCMs) in this region. To this end, this study employed time series analysis to evaluate GCMs' simulations, in terms of the air temperature variable, with regard to the observed climatic behaviors of Karkheh River basin, Iran. Resultantly, each of the GCMs' time series was broken down into three principal components (i.e., periodicity, trend, and stochastic component), and each component was analyzed accordingly. Results demonstrated that the simulations from different models significantly differed. Even though some models like CSIR-MK3.5 and INGV-SXG outperformed others in representing an accurate estimation of the historical climatic behavior of the southern plains of the Karkheh River, the GCMs could not provide a realistic simulation of the historical climatic behavior for the topographically challenging areas, like the northern mountainous parts of the basin. It should be noted that while the results from such analyses would shed light on the variability of the GCMs' simulations in regional-scale studies, the results, under no circumstances, provide evidence indicating that one model is more accurate than another.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146245
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Univ Tehran, Coll Agr & Nat Resources, Fac Agr Engn & Technol, Dept Irrigat & Reclamat Engn, Tehran, Iran
2.North Dakota State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Dept 2470, Fargo, ND 58108 USA

Recommended Citation:
Zolghadr-Asli, Babak,Bozorg-Haddad, Omid,Sarzaeim, Parisa,et al. Investigating the variability of GCMs' simulations using time series analysis[J]. JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,2019-01-01,10(3):449-463
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