globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1007/s10040-019-01971-8
WOS记录号: WOS:000481884200008
论文题名:
Chaos theory applied to the modelling of karst springs: first results from univariate time series
作者: Mangiarotti, S.1; Zhang, Y.2; Leblanc, M.2
通讯作者: Mangiarotti, S.
刊名: HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL
ISSN: 1431-2174
EISSN: 1435-0157
出版年: 2019
卷: 27, 期:6, 页码:2027-2043
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Empirical modelling ; Time series ; Karst ; Spring discharge ; Nonlinear dynamical systems
WOS关键词: VECTOR-FIELD RECONSTRUCTION ; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORK ; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; NONLINEAR-ANALYSIS ; AQUIFER ; FLOW ; GROUNDWATER ; SIMULATE ; RESOURCES ; TRANSPORT
WOS学科分类: Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向: Geology ; Water Resources
英文摘要:

The hydrological dynamics of karstic systems are generally highly nonlinear and weakly predictable. This paper introduces, for the first time, a hydrological modelling approach based on chaos theory. Although this modelling approach may be extended to multi-variables, as a first step in exploring its applicability, the focus is on the simple case of single-variable modelling for karst springs, which in practice corresponds to basins where rainfall is ungauged or poorly constrained. Chaos modelling is applied to the discharge of two karstic springs, the Doubs and the Lez springs in France, selected because they represent very different geological settings, climatic conditions, anthropogenic forcings and discharge dynamics. A deterministic model of autonomous ordinary differential equations is obtained for each spring. The models have chaotic behavior in both cases. The forecasting skills of these chaotic models are assessed. Forecasting performance estimates suggest that, under real conditions, forecasting could be performed for time horizons of similar to 16 h for Doubs and similar to 19 h for Lez (+/- 1,000 L/s, 95% of confidence). This analysis offers new evidence for chaos in hydrogeology: the dynamic of discharge of karst springs is both deterministic and highly sensitive to the initial conditions, and it can be approximated by low-dimensional models.


Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146356
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: 1.Observ Midi Pyrenees, INRA, IRD, UPS,CNRS,CNES, 18 Ave Edouard Belin, F-31401 Toulouse, France
2.Univ Avignon, INRA, UMR EMMAH, Hydrogeol Lab, Avignon, France

Recommended Citation:
Mangiarotti, S.,Zhang, Y.,Leblanc, M.. Chaos theory applied to the modelling of karst springs: first results from univariate time series[J]. HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL,2019-01-01,27(6):2027-2043
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Mangiarotti, S.]'s Articles
[Zhang, Y.]'s Articles
[Leblanc, M.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Mangiarotti, S.]'s Articles
[Zhang, Y.]'s Articles
[Leblanc, M.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Mangiarotti, S.]‘s Articles
[Zhang, Y.]‘s Articles
[Leblanc, M.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.