globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1002/we.2351
WOS记录号: WOS:000479057300005
论文题名:
Windstorm risk assessment for offshore wind farms in the North Sea
作者: Buchana, Paul1,2; McSharry, Patrick E.1,2,3,4
通讯作者: Buchana, Paul ; McSharry, Patrick E.
刊名: WIND ENERGY
ISSN: 1095-4244
EISSN: 1099-1824
出版年: 2019
卷: 22, 期:9, 页码:1219-1229
语种: 英语
英文关键词: catastrophe modeling ; North Sea wind farms ; offshore wind power ; risk analysis
WOS关键词: CLIMATE ; EVOLUTION ; EVENTS ; POWER
WOS学科分类: Energy & Fuels ; Engineering, Mechanical
WOS研究方向: Energy & Fuels ; Engineering
英文摘要:

The North Sea is becoming increasingly attractive to wind energy developers and investors, with 38 wind farms belonging to five different countries and representing overeuro35 billion of assets. Concerns about offshore wind turbines being damaged by extreme windstorms pose a challenge to insurers, investors and regulators. Catastrophe modeling can adequately quantify the risk. In this study, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to assess the number of turbines that buckle using maximum wind speeds reaching each wind farm. Damage assessment is undertaken for each wind farm using a log-logistic damage function and a left-truncated Weibull distribution. The risk to offshore wind power in the North Sea is calculated using an exceedance probability (EP) curve for the portfolio of wind farms. The European Union Solvency II directive requires insurance companies to hold sufficient capital to guard against insolvency. The solvency capital requirement (SCR) is based on a value-at-risk measure calibrated to a 99.5% confidence level over a 1-year time horizon. The SCR is estimated at euro0.049 billion in the case of yawing turbines. Simulations are repeated for different climate change scenarios. If wind speeds grow by 5% and the frequency of storms increases by 40%, the SCR is seen to rise substantially to euro0.264 billion. Relative to the total value of assets, the SCR is 0.14% compared with 0.08% for European property, confirming that these wind farm assets represent a relatively high risk. Furthermore, climate change could increase the relative SCR to levels as high as 0.75%.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146419
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Carnegie Mellon Univ Africa, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, Kigali, Rwanda
2.KCRC, Kigali, Rwanda
3.Univ Rwanda, African Ctr Excellence Data Sci, Kigali, Rwanda
4.Univ Oxford, Oxford Man Inst Quantitat Finance, Oxford, England
5.Carnegie Mellon Univ Africa, 8 KG 7 Ave,4th Floor,Telecom House, Kigali, Rwanda

Recommended Citation:
Buchana, Paul,McSharry, Patrick E.. Windstorm risk assessment for offshore wind farms in the North Sea[J]. WIND ENERGY,2019-01-01,22(9):1219-1229
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