INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
; MEDIATED REGIME TRANSITIONS
; OCEAN HEAT-TRANSPORT
; ENERGY FLUX EQUATOR
; HADLEY CIRCULATION
; TROPICAL RAINFALL
; PART I
; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE
; CLIMATE-CHANGE
; ITCZ POSITION
WOS学科分类:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向:
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
英文摘要:
Purpose of Review Long-standing biases in simulations of past and present climate states and climate model disagreement even in sign of future monsoon rainfall changes evince limitations in our theoretical understanding.
Recent Findings The dominant theoretical paradigms for understanding monsoon rainfall-convective-quasi equilibrium (CQE), the moist static energy (MSE) budget, and monsoons as local Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts-all jettison the traditional land-sea breeze paradigm. Summer monsoon precipitation falls when the assumptions of CQE are most satisfied but those of the ITCZ shift framework are least satisfied. Zonal asymmetries, changes in ITCZ width and strength, hydrology-vegetation-CO2 coupling, and timescale-dependent responses complicate inferences of monsoon rainfall from paleoclimate proxy records. The MSE budget framework applied to deliberately designed simulations can illuminate key mechanisms underlying monsoon responses to external forcings, presenting a path toward falsifying model projections.
Summary Sustained, rapid progress in monsoon rainfall theory is urgently needed by society and is plausible based on recent advances.