globalchange  > 全球变化的国际研究计划
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000494
WOS记录号: WOS:000475476000012
论文题名:
Economics of Making Roadway Pavements Resilient to Climate Change: Use of Discounted Cash Flow and Real Options Analysis
作者: Kottayi, Nivedya M.1; Mallick, Rajib B.1; Jacobs, Jennifer M.2; Daniel, Jo Sias2
通讯作者: Kottayi, Nivedya M.
刊名: JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS
ISSN: 1076-0342
EISSN: 1943-555X
出版年: 2019
卷: 25, 期:3
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Real option ; Net present value ; Resilient ; Adaptation ; Pavements
WOS学科分类: Engineering, Civil
WOS研究方向: Engineering
英文摘要:

An increase in the number of extreme weather events and gradual shifts in climate parameters due to a changing climate pose a serious threat to the nation's roadway infrastructure. A systematic approach is needed to define risks and assess consequences of climate change, consider the uncertainties, rank priorities, and initiate an adaptation strategy in a cost-effective manner. The objective of this study is to develop a framework that could be used to assess the impact of climate change on pavements in a rational way using either the net present value (NPV) or the real option (RO) approach to compare several options and to make the most prudent decision regarding selecting an option and the time of adopting that option. The NPV approach will generally go against an investment in cases with high uncertainty, even if they are very promising, and does not take into account the flexibility or decisions that could be implemented on the basis of changing conditions. In contrast, the RO method offers a flexible deferment option when the uncertainties regarding outcomes are resolved to a certain extent. A framework with a step-by-step method for evaluating the feasibility of building roads that are resilient to a changing climate is presented, along with an example. The worked-out example shows that there could be considerable value in using RO analysis, and this value can be leveraged to develop better economic policies for building roads that are resilient to a changing climate.


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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/146473
Appears in Collections:全球变化的国际研究计划

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作者单位: 1.Worcester Polytech Inst, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Worcester, MA 01609 USA
2.Univ New Hampshire, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Durham, NH 03824 USA

Recommended Citation:
Kottayi, Nivedya M.,Mallick, Rajib B.,Jacobs, Jennifer M.,et al. Economics of Making Roadway Pavements Resilient to Climate Change: Use of Discounted Cash Flow and Real Options Analysis[J]. JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS,2019-01-01,25(3)
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