全球变化知识资源中心

Forest landowners can adapt to climate change and carbon pricing by altering the types of forests that are replanted or regenerated. By inducing land-use changes within forestry, climate adaptation and mitigation policy can alter the flow of nonmarket forest ecosystem services. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the effect of climate change and carbon pricing on adaptation behavior of private forest owners. We develop an empirical framework with application to the US Pacific coast. An estimated discrete-choice econometric model is used as the empirical basis for a simulation of land-use changes to the composition of a landscape's forest stock. Results indicate that climate change induces landowners to adapt away from their current dominant species choice of Douglas-fir to species more suitable for the future climate, notably hardwoods and ponderosa pine. A carbon price policy accelerates adaptation away from current forest types, potentially creating an externality at the local level.